Howdy, readers. Phil Rosen here, reporting from New York City.
For many months now, I've been having conversations and writing about economic indicators that all point to a recession.
But it still hasn't officially happened yet, at least according to the $4 that's responsible for declaring them. They've stayed mum even as the economy goes haywire.
In any case, there's a$4 in the American trucking industry that have been trying to warn us for months that there's trouble ahead — and $4.
If this was forwarded to you, sign up here>$4. Download Insider's app here.>$4
1. The US is in the midst of a "freight recession," meaning there's fewer trucks delivering goods around the country.
That slowdown, in turn, has $4 since last May, with the Wall Street Journal reporting wholesale diesel falling from $5.34 to $2.65.
The $4, which is used to power machines and vehicles in countless sectors, began to dip first during the warmer-than-expected winter. $4 and weaker demand for trucks has dragged prices down further.
The American Trucking Association's for-hire contract truck tonnage index dropped to its lowest level since August 2021, and $4 is down 8.4% since last year.
All this, too, is showing up in transportation companies.
In a call last week, JB Hunt $4, and executives said a recovery for trucking looks uncertain.
"It's just a question of when and what position will we be in when our customers start ringing our phone again in ways that they have in the past," JB Hunt CEO John Roberts said.
Outside the trucking sector, the classic recession indicators are blaring, too:
- The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index just $4
- The New York Fed's Recession Probabilities Model puts the odds of a downturn at 57%, the highest mark since 1982.
What's your recession outlook? Has it already started? Tweet me (@philrosenn>$4) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.
In other news:
2. US stock futures rise early Wednesday, after both Alphabet and Microsoft beat analysts expectations for the last quarter. $4.
3. On the docket: Boeing, Goldman Sachs, and more, all $4.
4. This small-cap fund manager has beaten 90% of his peers over the last year. He shared five stocks that he's betting on right now — $4.
5. Goldman Sachs said de-dollarization attempts will remain contained and constrained for a long time. Threats to the greenback mostly hinge on lots of talk and not a lot of action, the bank's analysts told clients. $4.
6. Bullish signals are flashing that suggest the stock market is heading for a "summer rip," according to Bank of America. The S&P 500 could blow past its previous highs, strategists said, and $4.
7. The GameStop saga is getting a movie. Seth Rogen has been cast as Wall Street Bets' most reviled hedge funder, and Paul Dano will play meme-stock hero Roaring Kitty. $4.
8. Meet a married couple that bought their first house by accident. Since their first property, they've built a $19 million, 47-unit portfolio over the last eight years. $4.
9. Tiffany "The Budgetnista" Aliche teaches people how to get out of debt. She explained $4.
10. First Republic stock crashed 49% on Tuesday. Shares of the embattled bank dropped after it revealed its customers pulled over $100 billion worth of deposits last quarter. $4.
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn>$4 or email prosen@insider.com.
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams>$4) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock>$4) in London.