Good morning, team. I'm Phil Rosen.
As often is the case, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he takes the stand on Capitol Hill this afternoon before the House Financial Services Committee. He'll follow that up Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee.
Even after last week's Fed meeting and Powell's press briefing afterward, it wouldn't be surprising if he said something market-moving again over the next two days.
For today, let's check in on stocks.
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1. The S&P 500 is up more than 14% this year. But with fresh recession calls emerging on a daily basis, the outlook for equities keeps getting more and more divided.
Morgan Stanley, for example, has adopted a $4 for the months ahead.
The present rally is about to stumble thanks to a $4 of mood, earnings, and falling inflation.
"Investor sentiment and positioning," the firm's strategists said Tuesday, "has turned 180 degrees at an inopportune time, in our view."
With the latest Consumer Price Index clocking in at $4 and poised to ease further, that could pose a $4.
Falling prices, Morgan Stanley explained, can cut into revenue growth and weigh on earnings.
Another bad sign for stocks: $4 will be issued over the next six months, and that can put pressure on liquidity.
"This should begin to hit asset prices by the end of this month and carry into the fall," Morgan Stanley strategists said. "In addition to this domestic dynamic, we think global M2 (in USD) growth is also likely to flatten out and possibly fall again, adding one more element to the cocktail that could $4."
As the bank's chief US stock strategist Mike Wilson put it, $4 as growth stagnates.
Now, convincing as that may sound, there is no consensus on Wall Street.
Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton forecasts upside, for example, citing a bullish signal that just flashed.
In a note Tuesday, she pointed out that $4.
That was accompanied by a confirmed breakout in the NYSE $4, a technical indicator that measures how many individual names are participating in a given trend.
"This is something that we were looking for to essentially affirm the strength of the breakout in the major indices, and now we have that as indicative of expanding market breadth, something that can contribute to the sustainability of the uptrend," Stockton said. This line of thinking suggests $4, and runs counter to Morgan Stanley's bearishness.
To Stockton, the S&P 500 could soon trade as high as 4,510, or about $4 than current levels.
Which view here do you think is more likely? Tweet me (@philrosenn>$4) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.
In other news:
2. US stock futures fall early Wednesday, as investors brace for Powell's testimony. Meanwhile, in London, traders are expecting further Bank of England interest-rate hikes after another shock inflation reading. $4.
3. Earnings on deck: KB Home, Patterson Companies, and Winnebago Industries, all $4.
4. Six market strategists broke down how to invest in the current stock rally. It's possible equities run off to all-time highs in the months ahead — $4.
5. China's gold-buying boom is slowing down dramatically. Chinese retail gold saw a 24% gain in May, down from a prior peak of 44% year over year, Bloomberg data shows. $4.
6. A collapse in used car prices could help drive inflation below the Fed's target rate. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value index dropped 3.2% in the first two weeks of June, and it's down 9.4% annually. To Fundstrat's Tom Lee, $4.
7. More Russian oil than ever before is heading to China. Crude exports hit 2.29 million barrels a day last month, up 15.3% compared to the same time last year. $4.
8. Evercore strategists just listed their favorite stocks that could keep riding recent momentum. Investors can still rake in profits if they play their cards right, according to the firm. Here are 16 names on their radar now — $4.
9. Tight supply is driving home values higher. Home affordability could be a significant problem for the foreseeable future, especially for first-time buyers. $4.
10. Lumber prices jumped Tuesday after an unexpected spike in housing starts. The key stat soared more than 20% in May, and single-family starts reached an 11-month high. $4.
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn>$4 or email prosen@insider.com.
Edited by Jason Ma in Los Angeles and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock>$4) in London.