Tesla rival Rivian's stock sinks 17% after the EV maker's output forecast comes in well below expectations

Tesla rival Rivian's stock sinks 17% after the EV maker's output forecast comes in well below expectations
Rivian recalled 13,000 of its vehicles on Friday.Justin Sullivan / Staff / Getty
  • Rivian shares tumbled more than 17% as the EV maker's 2023 output forecast missed expectations.
  • The Tesla rival warned of more supply-chain constraints in its Q4 and full-year earnings report.

Tesla rival Rivian's stock price sank after its 2023 production forecast came in well below expectations and it issued its third recall in 16 months.

The electric-vehicle maker's shares were down 17% at $16.02 at last check in early trading Wednesday, after it warned that supply-chain bottlenecks would continue to hinder its output this year.

Rivian posted a production target of 50,000 for 2023 as it released its fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 earnings report Tuesday. That's 25% below the analysts' estimate for over 67,000 units reported by Reuters, citing Visible Alpha data.

The guidance on output implies Rivian could see a significant cut to its 2023 revenue estimates, analysts said.

The company posted fourth-quarter revenue of $663 million, up from $54 million a year ago but still missing analyst expectations for just over $742 million, per Refinitiv data. Its quarterly loss per share of $1.73 was narrower than the Wall Street estimate of $1.94 per share.


The 2023 forecast would still be double the company's production last year, which it said was 24,337 vehicles — slightly below its 25,000 guidance. But at the same time, its deliveries of vehicles last year were much lower, at 20,332.

"Supply chain continues to be the main limiting factor of our production; during the quarter we encountered multiple days of lost production due to supplier shortages," Rivian said in a letter to shareholders. "We expect supply-chain challenges to persist into 2023, but with better predictability relative to what was experienced in 2022."

Meanwhile, the automaker has recalled 12,700 of its vehicles, citing an issue with a sensor in the front passenger seat-belt system. It's the third major recall since the company went public in November 2021.

Rivian is the latest EV maker to cuts its production target for the year as bottlenecks limit manufacturing and interest rate rises squeeze borrowing. Its competitor Lucid said last week it would make fewer cars than expected in 2023, setting a production target of 10,000 - 14,000 cars that's around half Wall Street's estimate.

At the same time, the sector faces a price war after leader Tesla cut prices for its models in the US and Asia.


Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe was asked about the potential for price cuts on a call with analysts following the earnings release. He said the company feels confident about the price tags for its flagship R1 product line, noting it had already adjusted prices in 2022.

"Our reservation process now gives us more flexibility to make adjustments to pricing over time. But we do see the introduction of some of the new technologies and some of the new features to allow us to actually grow ASP," he said, referring to average selling price.