Good morning readers. Phil Rosen here. It's jobs day today.
If the reading comes in too hot, the Fed's going to have even more ammunition to push interest rates higher in the coming months — and every move higher $4 even more, ramping up risk of a recession.
Before the new data comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET, $4.
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1. A reading of 200,000 or more jobs added in February means we're getting a bigger rate hike this month.
$4 about the hotly anticipated February non-farm payroll report due this morning.
"The bottom line is that in the $4, we think a 50bp hike in March, followed by two additional 25bp hikes in May and June, will become a much more plausible outcome," strategists wrote Wednesday.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week that the trajectory of monetary policy doesn't hinge solely on today's jobs report, but markets are still $4.
Today, we'll learn what direction $4, wage gains, and unemployment are moving in, all of which are key inputs for the Fed's upcoming policy decision in a few weeks.
If the jobs report paints a picture of a robust labor market, the Fed likely won't need any more convincing to make a jumbo-sized rate hike at the next meeting, $4.
Bloomberg economists are projecting a 225,000 increase in February payrolls, which would be roughly $4.
Earlier this week, the ADP survey for private hiring clocked in at 242,000, well above the expected 200,000.
Remember, the Fed's stated goal is a 2% inflation rate. But it's currently more than triple that level, which means $4 and consumers are spending too much.
The Fed doesn't explicitly say it like this, but a sure-fire way to crush spending is to raise unemployment — that's why it's bad news when the Fed sees more and more Americans joining the workforce each month.
During Powell's Capitol Hill testimony this week, $4 asked him about just that (she's a longtime critic of his aggressive monetary policy).
"So Chair Powell, if you could speak directly to the 2 million hard working people who have decent jobs today, who you're $4, what would you say to them?" Warren asked. "How would you explain your view that they need to lose their jobs?"
Powell said he would "$4 and it's hurting the working people of this country badly."
He continued:
"All of them, not just 2 million of them, but all of them are suffering under high inflation and we are taking the only measures we have to bring inflation down…will working people be better off $4 and inflation remains 5%-6%?"
Meanwhile, $4 said Thursday that the Fed is taking a flawed policy approach, and it shouldn't be so focused on jobs.
"I think their focus on just how tight is the labor market – suddenly a monomaniacal type of a focus – $4," the professor said.
Has tighter monetary policy impacted your job security? What's your job market outlook for this year? Tweet me (@philrosenn>$4) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.
In other news:
2. Shares in SVB Financial are continuing to plummet as depositors move to withdraw their funds. The $4 sent shock waves through the sector, wiping $55 billion off the market value of Wall Street's four biggest banks. Read more on the meltdown $4. And for the latest market moves, $4.
3. Earnings on deck: Apple, AIA Group, and more, all $4.
4. Wall Street analysts weighed in on how to capitalize on AI technologies like ChatGPT, DALL-E, and more. Analysts from Bank of America, UBS, and other firms picked out the top stocks to buy now that can bring in profits from the nascent sector. $4.
5. Crypto investors could be set to lose a big tax loophole as part of President Biden's new budget proposal. The proposal could alter how cryptocurrency transactions are treated, which could raise as much as $24 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. $4.
6. The most closely watched recession indicator is telling markets that a downturn won't materialize for another two years. Credit Suisse's chief equities strategist said that the yield curve inversion is signaling that a downturn won't hit until August 2025. $4
7. The European Union will expand its liquefied natural gas import capacity by nearly a third. The bloc's nations continue to wean off Russian energy supplies, and it aims to add eight new LNG import terminals to ease bottlenecks. $4.
8. This 30-year-old property owner in Seattle is experimenting with short-term rentals. He's overcoming the "Airbnbust" trend by setting up one-of-a-kind listings — $4
9. Bank of America's stock chief shared why she thinks investors are using the exact wrong playbook for the oncoming recession. Savita Subramanian said it's time for a strategic revamp as the economy faces headwinds — $4
10. SVB Financial's shares fell 30% in premarket trading Friday, after plunging as much as 60% Thursday. A year of Fed interest rate hikes seriously hurt the financial profile of the company, and the pain could continue if the IPO market doesn't pick up soon. $4
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn>$4 or email prosen@insider.com.
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams>$4) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock>$4) in London.