The secular bull market in stocks that started in 2009 is still intact even if the S&P 500 trades another 15% lower, Katie Stockton says
- Fairlead's Katie Stockton thinks the stock market's current weakness is temporary.
- The bull market stemming from 2009 lows is still intact even if the S&P 500 falls to 3,200, she said.
- "I still do see this as a cyclical bear cycle within a secular bull trend," Stockton told CNBC last week.
It's been nothing but bad news for stock market investors this year, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 25% at its lows on September 30.
But according to Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton, the weakness, while it is likely to continue in the short-term, will be temporary.
"I still do see this as a cyclical bear cycle within a secular bull trend. I believe that the uptrend going back to the 2009 lows is still intact," Stockton told CNBC on Friday. (She confirmed to Insider on Thursday that her views still hold as markets rallied earlier this week.)
In other words, this year's sell-off is nothing but a shorter-term decline within a longer-term uptrend. Stockton's analysis is based in part on a long-term technical model called the Ichimoku Cloud model. The cloud model is a technical chart that combines support, resistance, momentum, and trend indicators into a single view.
Based on Stockton's cloud analysis, she sees a scenario where the S&P 500 could continue its descent to 3,200 and still leave the longer-term secular bull trend intact. A decline to 3,200 represents potential downside of 15% from current levels.
"The model, perhaps not accidentally, puts support around 3,200 if you look out into early Q2 of next year. So to me, it would be a natural timeframe of which to see that support discovery and for the secular bull to re-emerge," Stockton said.
Such a decline over the next few months would mean that this week's strong stock market rally is nothing more than a dead-cat bounce that will probably give way to more downside in the weeks ahead.
"Bear market relief rallies are often explosive and difficult to time. We would not add exposure for this reason," Stockton told clients in a note on Wednesday.
But longer-term, investors should expect a bottom to form in the stock market in the first half of next year that ultimately gives way to a resumption of the long-term uptrend that started in 2009.
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