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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's GDP growth slowed to 4% in Q2, while inflation continued to rise.</li><li>Economists have long been warning that the Russian economy is showing signs of "overheating."</li></ul>Russia's economic growth slowed to 4% in the second quarter of 2024, down from 5.4% in Q1, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240809-russian-economic-growth-dips-in-second-quarter-as-inflation-rises">AFP reported</a>, citing official data released on Friday.While the Russian economy continues to expand, it marked the lowest quarterly GDP growth result since the beginning of 2023, the report said.It comes as the Kremlin battles rising inflation and warnings that the economy is overheating.Russia's economic growth has come off the back of huge Kremlin spending on its military campaign in Ukraine, which it launched in February 2022.While that spending helped quell earlier predictions of an imminent recession linked to Western sanctions, it has led to rampant inflation.Inflation hit 9.13% year-on-year in July, the AFP report said, citing data from the Rosstat statistics agency.The country has also been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-overheating-consumer-spending-tourism-central-bank-interest-rate-2024-7">going through a consumption boom</a>, driven by the state's heavy defense spending and labor shortages."Consumer activity remains high amid a significant increase in households' incomes and positive consumer sentiment,'" Russia's central bank said in July."Labour shortages continue to grow. In these conditions, the growth in domestic demand does not result in a proportional expansion of the supply of goods and services but rather increases the costs of businesses and, consequently, intensifies inflationary pressures," it added.Russia's central bank hiked its key interest rate to 18% last month after inflation "accelerated" and was "developing significantly above the Bank of Russia's April forecast," it said.Russia's economy is also facing a severe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-population-decline-worker-shortage-growth-outlook-ukraine-war-2024-8">demographic crisis</a>, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-calls-russians-more-babies-ethnic-survival-economy-2024-2">nation's population</a> potentially shrinking by 50% by the end of the century, according to a report by the Atlantic Council written by Harley Balzer, an emeritus professor at Georgetown University.The report highlights Russia's long-standing population decline, which it says has now been exacerbated by the ongoing war in Ukraine.This decline could increase pressure on Russia's labor shortages and lead to lower growth and productivity."Unless Russia's leaders can develop and finance a more effective set of policies, the only solutions to population decline will be a combination of incorporating non-Russian territory and/or immigration from Asia and Africa," Balzer wrote in the report.

Russia's GDP growth slowed in Q2 while inflation continued to soar on the back of heavy state spending: report

New Delhi, India's economy grew 7.6 per cent in the September quarter of this fiscal and remained the fastest-growing large economy, mainly due to better performance by manufacturing, mining and services sectors, the government data showed on Thursday. The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 6.2 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2022-23. India remained the fastest-growing major economy, as China posted a 4.9 per cent growth in July-September 2023. According to the National Statistical Office (NSO) data, the agriculture sector GVA (Gross Value Added) growth decelerated to 1.2 per cent in the September 2023 quarter from 2.5 per cent a year ago. The expansion in financial, real estate and professional services' GVA was 6 per cent, down from 7.1 per cent in the year-ago quarter. The GVA in the manufacturing sector showed a growth of 13.9 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal compared to a contraction of 3.8 per cent in the year-ago period. As per the data, the output (GVA) in the 'mining and quarrying' accelerated to 10 per cent in the second quarter against a contraction of 0.1 per cent a year ago. Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services' grew by 10.1 per cent from 6.1 per cent. The construction sector recorded a growth of 13.3 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter compared to 5.7 per cent. The growth in gross domestic product (GDP) during the April-June quarter of 2023-24 remained unchanged at 7.8 per cent. "Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 41.74 lakh crore, as against Rs 38.78 lakh crore in Q2 2022-23, showing a growth of 7.6 per cent as compared to 6.2 per cent in Q2 2022-23," the NSO said in a statement. Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices in Q2 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 71.66 lakh crore against Rs 65.67 lakh crore in Q2 2022-23, showing a growth of 9.1 per cent as compared to 17.2 per cent in Q2 2022-23, it added. It further said the GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in April-September 2023-24 (H1 2023-24) is estimated at Rs 82.11 lakh crore against Rs 76.22 lakh crore during the corresponding period of the previous year, showing a growth of 7.7 per cent in H1 2023-24 compared to 9.5 per cent in H1 2022-23, it said. GDP at current prices in H1 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 142.33 lakh crore compared to Rs 131.09 lakh crore during the corresponding period of the previous year, showing a growth of 8.6 per cent in H1 2023-24 against 22.2 per cent in H1 2022-23. Meanwhile, the output of eight key infrastructure sectors jumped 12.1 per cent in October 2023 against 0.7 per cent expansion in the year-ago period on account of a sharp uptick in production of coal, steel, cement and electricity, according to the official data. The government's fiscal deficit at the end of October touched 45 per cent of the full-year budget estimate, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Thursday.

India's GDP grows 7.6% in September quarter, beats RBI estimates

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="1645850" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russians" source="Orion">Russians</keyword> are spending money freely, with consumption per capita surging over 20% from 2021 to 2023.</li><li>The spending comes on the back of an overheated economy, with growth driven by wartime state spending.</li></ul>Russia's economy is booming, and some people are spending generously, sending prices up. Russia posted 3.6%<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-2024-gdp-growth-seen-matching-2023-36-finance-minister-says-2024-04-19/"> GDP growth last year.</a> The unemployment rate hit a record low of 2.6% in April, as men continued heading to the war's front amid a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">brain drain.</a> The labor crunch has driven up wages, contributing to high inflation running over 9% on an annual basis — well above the official 4% target. On Friday, the Russian central bank warned — yet again — of an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-central-bank-governor-nabiullina-warns-overheating-inflation-interest-2023-12">overheating economy</a> when it hiked rates from 16% to 18%in an attempt to rein in price gains. "The GDP growth rates remained high in 2024 Q1 and Q2, while inflation was accelerating. This suggests that overheating in the economy has remained considerable," said Elvira Nabiullina, Russia's central bank governor, on Friday during her rate hike announcement. Despite sweeping sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-how-moscow-pays-war-economy-afloat-sanctions-ukraine-2024-2">Russia's economy</a> hasn't broken down and even appears resilient, as it's now being driven by wartime state spending on military activities and subsidies. <h2>Russians are traveling and spending on culture and hotels</h2>The rate hike from Russia's central bank comes amid a spending boom in the country where many appear to be spending very freely, even amid the war and Western sanctions, as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/3e2b2e63-082e-4058-ba92-dea580d4f40c">Financial Times reported on Friday.</a> Overall, consumption per capita has increased by over 20% from 2021 to 2023, with spending on tourism a standout, surging over 90%, according to the FT's analysis of official data. Spending on culture, hotels, transportation services, and personal services has also jumped. A resident in Moscow told the FT that her neighbor has been showing off photos of a pet lion. "Everyone who is upper-middle class, they're just enjoying a really good life," Sergei Ishkov, a Moscow investor and entrepreneur, told the media outlet. "Consumption is booming due to a combination of massive budget spending and labor force shortages leading to strong wage pressures," wrote Bartosz Sawicki, a market analyst at fintechConotoxia, in a Friday note. But military spending, which is around 7% of GDP, is leading to "serious macroeconomic imbalances," Sawicki added. <h2>Russia's central bank may hike rates again if necessary</h2>Nabiullina said on Friday that Russia's GDP will grow 3.5% to 4% this year from a year ago. But next year, it's likely to slow to 0.5% to 1.5% year-over-year growth. She added that the Russian central bank would keep its key interest rate high for as long as needed to bring inflation back to its target. If necessary, it could even impose more rate hikes to reduce economic risks. "Labour force and production capacity reserves have been almost exhausted," said Nabiullina on Friday. "Shortages of these resources might cause a situation where the economic growth will be slowing down despite any attempts to boost demand." Furthermore, any attempt to stimulate demand would only stoke even more inflation. That could create "a scenario of stagflation that could only be stopped by way of a deep recession," she warned, explaining the central bank's steep rate hike. The central bank next meets on September 13.

Some Russians are spending like no tomorrow with 'considerable' overheating in the economy

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], August 8 (ANI): <keyword id="64190" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI-Governor" source="Orion">RBI Governor</keyword> <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> says <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and <keyword id="489239" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-food-prices" source="Orion">global food prices</keyword> have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent." The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "<keyword id="21258540" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="headline-inflation" source="keywords">Headline inflation</keyword> eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, outlined the <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> with real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25 and headline inflation eased to 5.1 per cent in June, on Thursday. Das said, "Real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.1 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1 2025-26, this is something which we are giving for the first time, is projected at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." He added, "We have slightly moderated the <keyword id="387719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-projection" source="Orion">growth projection</keyword> for the first quarter of the current financial year in relation to the projection we gave in the previous MPC in June. This is primarily due to updated information on certain high-frequency indicators which show lower than anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure and core industries output." This forecast marks a slight moderation from previous estimates provided in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in June, attributed to recent updates on high-frequency indicators such as corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "Headline inflation eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." Balancing robust growth projections with a nuanced understanding of inflation dynamics Governor Das stated, "Food inflation which has a weight of around 46 per cent in the CPI basket, contributed to more than 75 per cent of headline inflation in May and June. Vegetable prices increased sharply and contributed about 35 per cent to inflation in June. High inflation pressures persisted across other major food items also." Governor Das mentioned softening in core inflation continues to be broad-based with core services inflation touching a new low in the current CPI series during the month of May and June 2024. Das stated, "The high food price momentum likely to have continued in the month of July also. Large favourable base effects may however push headline inflation downwards in July. The Impact of the revision in milk prices mobile tariffs also needs to be carefully monitored." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in south west monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta das. Das anticipates some relief in food inflation due to the expected pickup in the southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals remain above the normative levels, contributing to a more stable food price environment. Global food prices, which have been on an upward trajectory since March 2024, showed signs of easing in July.

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Russia's GDP growth slowed in Q2 while inflation continued to soar on the back of heavy state spending: report

Rebecca Rommen

India's GDP grows 7.6% in September quarter, beats RBI estimates

BI India Bureau

Some Russians are spending like no tomorrow with 'considerable' overheating in the economy

Huileng Tan

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das projects 7.2% GDP growth for 2024-25, reports eased inflation to 5.1% in June

ANI

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