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<ul class="summary-list"><li>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Russia to visit its president Vladimir Putin. </li><li>It's a visit that risks annoying India's ally the US. </li></ul>When India's prime minister arrived in Moscow on Tuesday, he greeted Russia's famously chilly president, Vladimir Putin, with an exuberant bear hug.It was a move likely <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">to rile the US, </a>India's most important geopolitical ally, which has placed pressure on New Delhi to loosen its ties with Russia over Putin's invasion of Ukraine.But Prime Minister Narendra Modi's fear of China — a key Russian ally — means that he's willing to risk American anger to keep Putin close."New Delhi sees Moscow as an important buffer in their relationship due to Moscow's strong ties with Beijing," Sarang Shidore, an analyst at the Quincy Institute, told Business Insider."It is not in Russia's interest to have China and India at loggerheads, so it could, to a degree, act as a restraining agent."<h2 id="0ad4840d-1eb0-4f3e-a27c-3953a5a682f0">India ignores US pressure to cut Russia ties</h2>During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was among India's most important allies, with the Kremlin providing military support during India's clashes with Pakistan.They've remained close ever since, but the relationship is being tested anew in the fallout from the Ukraine war.The US has attempted to persuade India to take part <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-biden-narendra-modi-india-82c9273cf3143cf16e9da23c3dd48170">in its campaign to isolate</a> Russia over the Ukraine invasion — but with little success."Russia is one of India's oldest strategic partners, and New Delhi wants to maintain this relationship regardless of Russia's diplomatic isolation following the war in Ukraine," Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, told BI.India has increased its purchase of Russian goods, including oil and fertilizer, at reduced prices after the US imposed sanctions on Russia.It continues to buy Russian armaments, with around <a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/more-than-60-70-of-india-armed-forces-equipped-with-russian-origin-weapons-indian-envoy/articleshow/76903811.cms?from=mdr">70% of its weapons systems believed to be Russian</a>-made, and its military reliant on the Kremlin for spare parts and upgrades."Taking a hardline position against Russia could have both economic and security ramifications for India," said Richard Rossow, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<h2 id="a68bd311-605c-44db-97ac-44c2056c27c0">China's threat to India increases</h2>The threat from Chinese leader Xi Jinping is another key factor in Modi's determination to ignore US pressure and retain good ties with Putin.China's regional might is growing, and it's menacing India, Asia's other major economic power.In 2020, a long-simmering border dispute resulted in deadly clashes between Indian and Chinese troops. China ha<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-produces-vast-undersea-maps-submarine-warfare-report-says-2024-1">s bolstered its presence in the Indian Ocean</a>, and the two are jostling for influence in countries in the region.China has built stronger ties with Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, hoping a Russian victory<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7"> will damage US power and enhance its own global</a> might. And it's this friendship Modi's seeking to drive a wedge between."There is a real chance of future conflicts, and India would prefer to avoid Russia exporting advanced military hardware to China," said Rossow.Some Indian analysts believe that China poses a greater threat to Russia than NATO in the long term and that India can exploit those differences."The Russia-China 'alliance' may be short-term in nature, and that historical conflicts between the two, such as over their long border and under-developed natural resources in Russia's east, will resurface and trigger renewed tensions," said Morrow.But for the time being, Russia's new "no limits"<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-no-limits-partnership-yuan-bank-loans-sanctions-2024-2"> partnership has got Modi worried</a>, and he'll likely be hoping for a swift end to the Ukraine war. By maintaining good relations with Putin he's hoping he can contain the fallout."The war does not at all benefit its interests. The war also opens the door to legitimizing violations of territorial integrity, and endangers a principle that New Delhi has backed strongly," said Shidore.

Fear of China is behind India's exuberant display of friendship with Vladimir Putin 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas carried out a devastating attack on <keyword id="19900599" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="israel" source="keywords">Israel</keyword> one year ago, killing about 1,200 people.</li><li>The terror attack has helped push the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional war.</li></ul>On the early morning of October 7, 2023, air raid sirens began blaring in Israel, warning its citizens that an attack was in progress. Hamas, a militant group much of the West has designated a terrorist organization, launched a highly coordinated strike that the Israel Defense Forces would later say killed about 1,200 people. One year after the massacre, the Middle East has only plunged deeper into violence and is on the brink of a broader war. Paths to de-escalation, largely facilitated by the US, have repeatedly failed. And Israel appears to be inching closer to a direct conflict with Iran, a grim prospect that has been avoided for years as the two countries limited their fight to proxies in a shadow war. The results of the yearlong conflict, with origins that date back decades, have been costly for both Israel and the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," noted Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security advisor who served for over 20 years in Israel's security establishment. "Israel has turned the tide and has the Axis of Resistance on the defensive. Hamas has been defeated militarily, though not politically, and remains in political control in Gaza," Freilich told Business Insider, adding that Iran had come to be in a vulnerable position. "Conversely, Israel was in the midst of a multi-front war which may result in significant damage to its homefront and is deeply isolated in the world," he added. <h2>A year of bloodshed</h2>Israel's response to Hamas' attack on October 7 was a massive bombardment campaign and later ground incursion in Gaza, which Palestinian authorities say have left about 42,000 people dead. Amid the early stages of that campaign, the first high-profile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-navy-warship-missiles-intercepted-2f5fc9c8a3737f762b29d5c53ec08a5b">expansion of the greater conflict blew open in late October,</a> when Yemen's Houthi rebels <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-idf-houthi-rebels-hijack-ship-red-sea-2023-11">began attacking commercial ships</a> seeking passage through the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, historically backed and armed by Iran, said they were declaring a show of support for Hamas by attacking ships linked to Israel, though they were often found to have used drones, missiles, and raiding parties to harass vessels with no direct relation to it. <div type="image" title="Houthi supporters in Yemen brandish rifles and Yemeni and Palestinian flags in July." height="3840" width="5760" msid="114014767" hostid="261"></div>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-houthis-yemen-rebels-attacking-ships-red-sea-2024-1">Houthi attacks</a> threatening to close off a vital international shipping lane, the US and its allies and partners established a heavy military presence in the Red Sea to fend off the rebels. January saw the West's most direct and overt military involvement in the conflict, when the US, UK, and their allies <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">barraged Houthi targets</a> with airborne, surface, and subsurface-launched strikes after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">warning the rebels repeatedly</a> to cease their attacks. The campaign has dragged on for almost a year with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-west-cant-stop-houthi-missile-attacks-on-ships-2024-1">no end in sight</a>, and the US has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-left-middle-east-ending-show-force-2024-9">rotating multiple aircraft carrier groups</a> into the region while carrying out further strikes on Houthi territory. To the north, Syria became the site of further conflict in April, when Israel launched a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4" target="_blank">strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus</a>, killing several senior officials of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals. Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, previously told BI that the strike was significant because it was the "first time Israel struck an official Iranian government-affiliated site with high-ranking people inside." <div type="image" title="Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, and other officials check the site of Israeli attack on Iran consulate in Damascus in April," height="2080" width="3040" msid="114014764" hostid="261"></div>Iran followed up with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">long-range attack on Israel at an unprecedented scale</a>, launching what Israeli authorities said were 170 attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles — almost all of which were intercepted. Israel then responded with its<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4"> own strikes on multiple cities in Iran</a>. And in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Ismail Haniyeh</a>, the political leader of Hamas, was killed just after he attended the swearing-in of Iran's new president. <keyword id="20394829" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="haniyeh" source="keywords">Haniyeh</keyword> was widely reported to have been killed by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">remotely detonated explosive device</a> that was planted months before his death in a guesthouse he was using in Tehran. Israel also claimed responsibility that week for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7" target="_blank">killing the Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>, a senior advisor to the Lebanese militant organization's top leader, Hassan <keyword id="20081934" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nasrallah" source="keywords">Nasrallah</keyword>, via an air-launched strike in Beirut. <div type="image" title="A billboard in Beirut. depicts Ismail Haniyeh, Qasem Soleimani, and Fuad Shukr." height="3067" width="4600" msid="114014762" hostid="261"></div>Meanwhile, Hezbollah, a longtime enemy of Israel, has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-lebanon-israeli-positions-gaza-hamas-2023-10">exchanging fire</a> with Israel on its southern border since the October 7 attack, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides to flee. In one of the most dramatic attacks the region has yet seen, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-hezbollah-members-hurt-after-pagers-just-weirdly-exploded-2024-9">thousands of pagers and communication devices</a> used by Hezbollah detonated in September, injuring more than 2,800 people and killing at least eight. Mossad, Israel's spy agency, is widely believed to have orchestrated the attack by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pagers-had-dark-feature-made-them-more-gruesome-2024-10">planting explosives inside the devices</a> before they were distributed, but Israel has not claimed responsibility. <div type="image" title="This picture shows a fire that emerged after an Israeli bombardment in south Lebanon." height="1588" width="2408" msid="114014770" hostid="261"></div>Later in September, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9" target="_blank">Israel launched a strike</a> that killed Nasrallah at Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, bringing an end to his 32-year leadership of the militant group. Then, at the start of this month Israel began what it called a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9" target="_blank">limited ground incursion into Lebanon</a>, saying it sought to dismantle Hezbollah's positions and artillery in the south. Iran moved soon after to launch a second major attack on Israel. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles, including its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10" target="_blank">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5. It's unclear whether Israel might expand its scope in Lebanon, where it faces difficult terrain and Hezbollah troops who have had years to embed and prepare. Lebanon's health ministry has said more than 2,000 people have been killed so far in the ensuing strikes and raids. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles at Israel on October 2, including its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach-5. <h2>Escalations don't bode well for the Middle East</h2>History shows there's little chance that Israel will let that attack pass without a response, as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin <keyword id="19934489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="netanyahu" source="keywords">Netanyahu</keyword> indicated in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSI5tQuXys">a speech to the United Nations General Assembly</a> on September 27. "If you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East," he said. Meanwhile, last month saw<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9"> hundreds of thousands of Israeli protesters</a> rallying against Netanyahu's failure to secure some sort of cease-fire deal that could lead to the release of the hostages remaining in Gaza after the attack one year ago. Gili Roman, whose sister was kidnapped on October 7 and later released and whose relative Carmel Gat was among the six slain hostages recovered by the IDF in early September, told BI last month that Netanyahu and his government were "prioritizing themselves" over the hostages. The anticipation of yet another cycle of escalating retaliation has set the world on edge, amid fears that an all-out war between Iran and Israel will destabilize the entire region. Globally, the immediate concern is that oil supplies will diminish significantly should conflict spill over to the rest of the Middle East. Last week, Citigroup analysts estimated that a major strike on Iranian oil infrastructure could reduce global oil supplies by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-oct-3">1.5 million barrels per day.</a> <h2>Israel ignores US red lines</h2>US President <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword> has for a year been trying to avoid the war growing into a wider regional conflict that could pull in the US and other world powers. He has repeatedly sought to broker a cease-fire in Gaza, organize more humanitarian support for civilians, and limit Israel's campaign. But Netanyahu has repeatedly ignored Biden's red lines and has continued to push forward against Hamas even as the civilian death toll spiraled and international opposition to Israel's campaign mounted. The US has also helped shield Israel against Iranian missile attacks sparked by the April killings and recent attacks on Hezbollah, and has positioned troops in the area to deter further Iranian aggression, while also seeking to tamp down the conflict. Meanwhile, as Israel intensified its attacks against Hezbollah two weeks ago, the US announced that it had brokered a possible cease-fire agreement — only for Israel to assassinate Nasrallah one day later. Critics of US policy believe that Netanyahu is acting in his own self-interest to try to hold together his fragile coalition government, whose far-right members support intensifying the war against Iran and its allies. "Netanyahu doesn't care about his friendship with Biden, or even about Israel's dependence on the United States. He cares only about his near-term political interests. Everyone but Biden can see this," wrote Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/israel-war-biden-iran/680155/">in The Atlantic</a> last week. <h2>The global economy on edge</h2>When the conflict began a year ago, there were fears that wider conflict in the Middle East could impact the global economy. Oil prices did rise in the days after the October 7 attacks and Brent crude peaked above $92 a barrel later that month, but then started declining to about $73 in mid-December. In contrast, oil hit about $130 a barrel after <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, experts recently told Business Insider that a wider war in the region could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">choke global economic growth and reignite inflation</a>. The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/year-war-creates-cracks-israels-borrowing-strength-2024-10-06/">according to Reuters</a>. And in June, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/05/scars-of-conflict-are-deeper-and-longer-lasting-in-middle-east-and-central-asia">the IMF noted</a> that the long-term economic effects of severe conflict on real GDP per capita in the Middle East were particularly pronounced, compared to other regions. It said that countries in the Middle East can expect to experience a roughly 10% decline in real GDP per capita a decade after the onset of a conflict, compared to pre-conflict levels. Correction: October 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Israel launched its strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah. That attack took place before Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon, not after, and the subsequent Iranian missile strike came soon after the Israeli ground assault, not hours after Nasrallah's killing. The story also misspelled the name of the former deputy national security advisor in Israel. He is Chuck Freilich, not Chuck Frielich.

One year on, the Middle East is spiraling deeper into violence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine's military invaded the Kursk region in Russia on Tuesday.</li><li>The Kremlin initially downplayed the attack.</li></ul>When Ukraine launched its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-attack-kursk-russia-shows-surprise-possible-despite-drones-isw-2024-8">audacious cross-border attack in Russia's Kursk region</a> on Tuesday, the Kremlin initially downplayed the incursion, attributing it to a "sabotage and reconnaissance group." But as the scale of the attack became clearer, with thousands of <keyword id="20506587" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ukrainian-troops" source="keywords">Ukrainian troops</keyword> advancing up to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-took-out-18m-russian-helicopter-using-cheap-drone-reports-2024-8">six miles into Russia</a>, President <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Vladimir-Putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> hurried to contain the fallout. In a televised meeting with Kursk Oblast Acting Head Alexey Smirnov Thursday, Putin urged the governor to show "courage and composure," and assured civilians fleeing the fighting that help was on its way. The meeting, said US think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), was aimed at reassuring Russians that the situation was under control to avoid "significant domestic discontent." Raids such as that launched by Ukraine this week have the potential to undercut Putin's prestige and power — and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-kursk-war-russia-six-miles-kremlin-large-scale-provocation-2024-8">Kremlin's muddled response</a> is a sign it's worried. "Substantial Ukrainian advances within Russia would be a strategic blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin's decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence," the ISW said. <h2>Ukraine's attack catches Russia off guard</h2> <div type="image" title="Kursk attack" height="567" width="1024" msid="112406701" hostid="261"></div>Ukraine's motive for the attack, which apparently took Russian forces by surprise, remains unclear, with Kyiv not publicly commenting on the operation. It's led to fierce criticism of the Kremlin from ultranationalist bloggers, who've questioned why the Russian military was so unprepared and criticized chaotic attempts to evacuate civilians. Military analysts believe that Ukraine is seeking to land an embarrassing blow on Putin by bringing the war home to ordinary Russians. Ukraine may also be seeking to divert Russian troops from the front line in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine, which has been the site of ferocious combat in recent months. It also seems intent on showing its Western backers it can "flip the script" and pull off audacious operations after recent setbacks, said Bryden Spurling, an analyst with the Rand Corporation. Callum Fraser, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said Putin's strongman image is based on his capacity to keep Russians safe. "Putin needs to demonstrate that Russia's borders are secure and that ultimately, the people within Russia aren't going to be affected too much by the conflict that's taking place in Ukraine," he told Business Insider. "As soon as it starts to affect the people that's [when they] become galvanized to actually do something about it, to secure their own livelihoods and their property, and that may then lead to them questioning whether Putin is the right man for the job." Putin has so far been able to avoid major domestic unrest from the two-year war— despite the vast casualties it's inflicted on the Russian military. The economic impact on ordinary Russians has not been as severe as some economists had projected. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has tightly controlled media coverage of the war and Putin has avoided having to impose unpopular military drafts by boosting conscription. But the 2023 rebellion by Russian mercenary group Wagner exposed Putin's vulnerability to blowback from events in Ukraine. The Russian government lost control of the city of Rostov to rebels protesting what they saw as Russia's botched campaign, and mercenaries advanced on Moscow before the mutiny was called off. Fraser said the Wagner rebellion is likely weighing on Putin's mind as he considers the potential fallout from the Kursk incursion. He said the incursion is partly about "demonstrating to the people within Russia and the border regions that they're not as safe as they want to be, which could potentially cause some domestic discontent." Putin's failures to protect Russia, said Spurling, are "dangerous to his image and for those around him, and that in turn can chip away at the cohesion and unity of his inner circle." <div type="image" title="Wagner mutiny" height="683" width="1024" msid="112406699" hostid="261"></div><h2>A play for leverage in negotiations</h2>There are doubts about whether Ukraine's already overstretched military can sustain the momentum of its Kursk incursion. Ukraine is already struggling to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-troops-new-recruits-ukraine-bonus-high-death-rate-2024-7">recruit enough troops</a> to hold its defensive positions on the front lines, and the high-risk attack on Russia has been met with an, at best, lukewarm response from Kyiv's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-bradley-fighting-vehicles-unorthodox-ways-russia-war-putin-2024-6">most important international ally, the US.</a> It's unclear, said Maxim Alyukov, a political sociologist at King's College London, how long Ukraine would be able to hold the territory it's seized in Russia if the Kremlin launches a major operation to drive them out. But with reports indicating that both sides in the war may be willing to consider peace negotiations, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wont-be-able-launch-new-offensive-year-nato-official-2024-7">Ukraine</a> may be gambling that by landing a humiliating blow on Putin, it'll be able to negotiate a deal from a position of strength. The operation, Alyukov said, is a "bold move" aimed at sending a message that Ukraine retains the capacity to hurt Russia in new and unexpected ways. But Ukraine will have to sustain the momentum to seriously dent Putin's power. Correction: August 8, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the date of the picture showing Wagner fighters in Rostov-on-Don. The image was taken in June, 2023, not June, 2024.

Ukraine's audacious invasion of Russian territory is a massive blow to Putin's power

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Vladimir Putin said he'd prefer President Joe Biden to win a second term over Donald Trump.</li><li>Trump was quick to capitalize on Putin's remarks, saying that it was a "great compliment."</li></ul>Getting the stamp of approval from eminent world leaders is usually a big boost for political candidates. But for <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-joe-biden-bio-age-family-key-positions-2019-3">President Joe Biden</a>, who just got a stamp of approval from Russian President <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-just-had-one-of-his-best-ever-weeks-2024-2">Vladimir Putin</a>, it's a different story. And Biden's foremost opponent in the presidential race knows it.On Wednesday, Putin told <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://t.me/s/zarubinreporter">Russian state media</a> he'd prefer a second Biden term over a win for <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-donald-trump-bio-age-family-key-positions-2019-4">Donald Trump</a>. Putin said Biden was "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-prefer-second-biden-term-over-trump-one-2024-2">more experienced</a>" and "more predictable."Trump was quick to jump on those comments."President Putin of Russia has just given me a great compliment, actually," he said at a rally in South Carolina on the same day, according to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-calls-putins-comment-prefers-biden-trump-great/story?id=107251595">ABC News</a>. "He just said that he would much rather have Joe Biden as president than Trump.""Now that's a compliment. A lot of people said, 'Oh, gee, that's too bad.' No, no, that's a good thing. And, of course, he would say that," the former president continued.Trump said Putin didn't want him back in the White House because he would pose a threat to Russia's interests. "He doesn't want to have me. He wants Biden because he's going to be given everything he wants, including Ukraine," Trump told rally attendees."The only president in the last five that hasn't given Russia anything is a president known as Donald J. Trump," Trump said.To be sure, there are some things Trump glossed over in his rally speech. For one, he neglected to mention the Biden administration's strong opposition to Russia's war in Ukraine. Nor did he mention how close the MAGA-leaning wing of the Republican Party is to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-could-be-about-to-cost-ukraine-war-analysts-russia-2024-2">blocking further military aid to Ukraine</a> and affecting its chances of beating Russia. Under the Biden administration, Ukraine has received more than <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/">$44 billion</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/"> in military assistance</a> from the US since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022.Nonetheless, Putin's remarks have given Trump a much-needed boost after what has been a tough week for him.The GOP frontrunner on Monday <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-immunity-argument-weak-supreme-court-deny-week-ty-cobb-2024-2">asked the Supreme Court to pause a decision</a> made by an appeals court, which essentially ruled that Trump wasn't immune to prosecution on charges related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Biden hasn't been having a good time either. The 81-year-old president is fending off criticism about his age after a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-memory-issues-special-counsel-report-2024-2&amp;post-bottom-piano-recommendations">special counsel's report</a> said he was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-forgot-timing-vice-presidency-beau-death-special-counsel-report-2024-2">grappling with memory issues</a>.The report, which centered on Biden's handling of classified documents, said the president presented himself during interviews "as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory."

Vladimir Putin just did Donald Trump a big favor

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has been selected as NATO's next Secretary-General.</li><li>Rutte will replace Jens Stoltenberg, who has led NATO since 2014.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/nato">NATO</a> has selected outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_227064.htm#:~:text=On%20Wednesday%20(26%20June%202024,of%20NATO%2C%20succeeding%20Jens%20Stoltenberg.">next Secretary-General</a>.Rutte, a fierce critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, will take over from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/nato">Jens Stoltenberg</a> on October 1, ending the latter's decadelong run at the helm of the alliance.The 57-year-old, who is the Netherlands' longest-serving prime minister, will take over the reins at a crucial and turbulent time for the alliance, with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/election">US election looming in November</a> and the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza still raging on.The intray for Rutte is "daunting," Philippe Dickinson, the deputy director of the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-dutch-prime-minister-mark-rutte-will-be-natos-next-secretary-general-how-will-he-lead-the-alliance/">said</a>.He will have to contend with "reinforcing defense and deterrence across the Alliance in the face of a hostile and bellicose Russia, helping Ukraine to defeat Russia and welcoming Kyiv into the Alliance, and establishing NATO's role in dealing with the rising challenge posed by China," Dickinson continued, "all while evolving the Alliance to keep up with fast-paced technological change and without neglecting NATO's counterterrorism and crisis management responsibilities."And that's not to mention the upcoming US election, which comes just a month after Rutte will take office.However, the Dutch politician is familiar with Trump, and he has even garnered the nickname the "Trump whisperer" after successfully placating the former president after he had warned during a NATO meeting in 2018 that the US would go its "own way" if other countries did not start spending more on their militaries, per <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/mark-rutte-nato-donald-trump-vladimir-putin/">Politico</a>.After a fractious few moments, Rutte reportedly "rescued" the situation by telling Trump that other countries' spending had gone up and that Trump was, in fact, to thank.Rutte's experience and personality could now be key to "Trump-proofing" NATO should he win the November election, Rachel Rizzo, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, added."He's seen as cool, calm, and collected. He knows how to handle big egos, he's worked with Trump before (even praising him at times), and he understands the need for European allies to increase their share of the burden of European security," she said.<div type="image" title="Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte" height="2756" width="4133" msid="111383403" hostid="261"></div>Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, told Business Insider that Rutte is "a consensus builder" and "a person with a track record of improving his country's defense burdensharing efforts."Rutte is also a major supporter of Ukraine, and he has been a key driver of European military support for the country since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.Rutte was influenced by the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014, which killed 196 Dutch nationals. The Netherlands <a target="_blank" href="https://www.government.nl/topics/mh17-incident/news/2024/06/10/flight-mh17-european-court-of-human-rights-the-netherlands-inter-state-application-russian-federation">says</a> Russia played a key role in the incident."He won't stop at Ukraine if we don't stop him now. This war is bigger than Ukraine itself. It's about upholding the international rule of law," Rutte <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutchman-mark-rutte-longtime-putin-critic-set-lead-nato-alliance-2024-06-18/">said</a> of Putin in 2022.

Meet NATO's next chief, the 'Trump whisperer' and fierce critic of Vladimir Putin 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia entered into a new security pact with the rogue state North Korea. </li><li>It's an alliance probably being viewed with caution in Beijing, analysts say.</li></ul>Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, recently signed a<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-could-arm-ukraine-after-russia-north-korea-pact-2024-6"> defense pact</a> to protect against what they characterized as the malign forces of US imperialism.But it's not just the US's allies in East Asia that appear alarmed by the new alliance between the authoritarian leaders.Anxiety appears to be growing in a state that's emerged as both Russia and North Korea's most important international ally: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-choice-between-fueling-ukraine-war-and-trade-europe-g7-2024-6">China</a>.<h2 id="340f4f84-b7a2-4513-9bd8-abcd8a7dc4fd">A muted response</h2>China's response to the pact, which saw Putin and Kim pledge to defend each other's countries if attacked, was revealingly muted."The cooperation between <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-ukraine-security-deal-hollow-pledge-putin-ceasefire-russia-us-2024-6">Russia</a> and the DPRK is a matter between two sovereign states. We do not have information on the relevant matter," a spokesman for China's foreign ministry said.Analysts say the alliance is probably being viewed warily by China's leader, Xi Jinping, who fears his power will be eroded in the Korean peninsula.Danny Russel, the top US diplomat for Asia in the Obama administration, told the <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/china-north-korea-russia-defense-agreement-3998a978ed89fd42b6da654ab1572873">Associated Press</a> that China could emerge as the "biggest loser" from the security pact."Apart from irritation over Putin's intrusion into what most Chinese consider their sphere of influence, the real cost to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-seeks-china-neom-mbs-investment-risk-vision-crown-prince-2024-6">China</a> is that Russia's embrace gives North Korea greater impunity and room to maneuver without consideration to Beijing's interests," he said.<h2 id="6719acad-7272-4375-a7d3-19e7bb6131e1">An important ally</h2>China has long been North Korea's most important international ally, providing trade, diplomatic support, and military aid to Kim.It's the only country in the world with which China has a joint defense pact.But in recent years, the relationship has become strained. North Korea has defied attempts by the international community to compel it to dismantle the nuclear weapons it menaced its neighbors with.Russia's invasion of Ukraine has meanwhile destabilized relations between Beijing and Pyongyang further.<div type="image" title="Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un waving to crowds with North Korean and Chinese flags." height="809" width="1024" msid="111234721" hostid="261"></div>Russia is leaning on North Korea for supplies of badly needed artillery for its forces in Ukraine, and in exchange, Russia appears to have shared with North Korea the satellite technology Kim has long coveted.It's a dynamic that's upset the delicate balance of power in the Korean peninsula.<h2 id="199df3b1-ca6f-4907-8972-782ba92ee574">An emboldened Kim Jong Un</h2>Russia's extra military power could embolden Kim to act more erratically and aggressively. While China is willing to prop up North Korea, it's also keen to restrain <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-kim-jong-un-fan-art-russia-north-korea-2024-6">Kim</a>.With China's economy experiencing a rare downturn, Xi is eager to avoid a flare-up in the Korean Peninsula, and the Kremlin's new partnership with North Korea has reduced China's leverage."The dilution of Chinese leverage means Kim Jong Un can disregard Beijing's calls for restraint," Russell told the AP, "and that is much more likely to create chaos at a time when Xi Jinping desperately wants stability."But it's not just the impoverished North Korea that's reliant on its partnership with China. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-china-in-russia-pocket-power-imbalance-xi-jinping-putin-2024-6">Russia has grown increasingly dependent on its own relationship with China</a> since it invaded Ukraine.Amid sanctions and international isolation, China has continued to provide Russia with vital diplomatic support and, the US says, dual-use goods for Russia's armaments industry.Like Russia and North Korea, China wants to damage US global power, and though it's stopped short of providing Russia with weapons, its support remains crucial.This means China has enough influence over both Russia and North Korea to exert control over their new alliance.Yun Sun, the director of the China program at Washington's Stimson Center think tank, told <a target="_blank" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/23/china/china-wary-putin-kim-new-alliance-intl-hnk/index.html">CNN</a> that Beijing appeared unable to control the pace of Russia's new alliance with North Korea.She added, however, that "they do know that China plays an irreplaceable role for both Russia and North Korea."China has considerable influence over both countries. It may have to use that influence sooner rather than later.

Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un are getting closer &mdash; and China has reason to be worried

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Silvio Berlusconi went on a hunting trip with Vladimir Putin in 2013, per Italian media.</li><li>During the trip, Putin shot and carved out a deer's heart, which he offered to the late Berlusconi.</li></ul>Russian leader <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-just-did-donald-trump-big-favor-against-biden-2024-2">Vladimir Putin</a> once presented the late Italian premier, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silvio-berlusconi-italy-pm-known-sex-parties-dead-at-86-2023-6">Silvio Berlusconi</a> with a deer's heart that he carved out himself, a former Italian senator said on Sunday.Fabrizio Cicchitto, who was once a member of Berlusconi's Forza Italia party, told the Italian newspaper <a target="_blank" href="https://roma.corriere.it/notizie/politica/24_maggio_05/fabrizio-cicchitto-intervista-3e395915-d24a-475f-a364-5ce6ac85axlk.shtml">Corriere della Sera</a> that Berlusconi recounted the experience to him after visiting Russia in 2013.Berlusconi, Cicchitto said, was accompanying Putin on a hunting trip in the Russian countryside when Putin spotted a pair of deer. After shooting the deers, Putin told Berlusconi he would prepare an extraordinary meal with it, per Cicchitto's recount.According to Cicchitto, Putin proceeded to cut open one of the deer's body with a hunting knife. Putin then pulled out the deer's heart himself and offered it to Berlusconi.The sight of the raw organ, however, was just too much for Berlusconi, who according to Cicchitto, retreated to behind a tree to vomit.Berlusconi might have balked at Putin's culinary offering, but the former Italian prime minister shared a close relationship with Putin.Months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Berlusconi defended Putin and said the latter was just trying to "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.editorialedomani.it/politica/italia/berlusconi-putin-zelensky-governo-persone-per-bene-f92305l3">replace Zelenskyy's government with a government of decent people</a>."And when Berlusconi passed away in June 2023, Putin was quick to offer his condolences."For me, Silvio was a dear person, a true friend," Putin <a target="_blank" href="http://kremlin.ru/events/president/letters/71347">said</a> of the Berlusconi. "His death is an irreparable loss and great sorrow."While Cicchitto's recount may seem bizarre, it does seem to be in line with Putin's penchant for cultivating a macho strongman image. Stories of Putin's machismo also likely come in handy at a time where the Russian leader needs to show strength — in the middle of a years-long war that has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-defense-military-war-spending-drains-resources-other-sectors-2024-1">drained Russian resources</a>, in which the US has now committed an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-us-aid-kill-russia-momentum-wont-win-it-war-2024-4">additional $61 billion</a> to help Ukraine keep the fight going.The Russian leader has been involved in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-macho-stunts-that-arent-as-impressive-as-they-seem-2018-3">multiple over-the-top photo ops</a> over the years, where he's been seen <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-macho-stunts-that-arent-as-impressive-as-they-seem-2018-3#kicking-ass-in-judo-against-people-who-hardly-fight-back-1">flexing his judo moves</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-defends-shirtless-photos-i-see-no-need-to-hide-2018-6">riding a horse while shirtless</a>.In fact, eating a deer's heart is probably not that strange once you consider what else Putin has done with animals, per prior accounts.In April 2022, Russian investigative news outlet <a target="_blank" href="https://www.proekt.media/en/investigation-en/putin-health/">Proekt</a> reported that Putin took baths using <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-health-cancer-fears-and-baths-in-deer-antler-blood-says-report-2022-4">blood extracted from severed deer antlers</a> as a form of alternative medicine.Representatives for the Russian foreign ministry didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from BI sent outside regular business hours.

Vladimir Putin once made Italy's prime minister throw up by shooting a deer, carving out its heart, and offering it to the man raw: report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first to North Korea in 24 years.</li><li>Putin gifted North Korean leader Kim Jong Un a second Aurus Senat limousine during the visit.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/vladimir-putin">Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/kim-jong-un">North Korean leader Kim Jong Un</a> took a Russian-made Aurus Senat limousine for a spin during the Russian President's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kim-jong-un-says-russia-north-korea-allies-putin-bromance-2024-6">first visit to Pyongyang in 24 years</a>.The drive offered the leaders an opportunity to showcase their strengthening relationship, which Kim said on Wednesday had reached "a new high of alliance."Video footage shared on Telegram showed Putin behind the wheel of the Aurus, which he also gifted to his North Korean counterpart, Russian state media <a target="_blank" href="https://tass.ru/obschestvo/21138893">reported</a>, citing Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov.Putin gifted another Aurus to Kim in February of this year, adding to the leader's large collection of luxury vehicles, which also includes a Maybach, a Mercedes-Benz, and a Rolls Royce — all of which were likely smuggled into the country in violation of UN sanctions, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-receives-car-gift-putin-kcna-2024-02-19/">Reuters</a> reported.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un drive a Russian Aurus limousine during their meeting in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Wednesday, June 19, 2024." height="1970" width="2970" msid="111188659" hostid="261" sizebytes="164022"></div>Putin is also said to have gifted Kim a tea set and a dagger during his recent visit.In return, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-kim-jong-un-fan-art-russia-north-korea-2024-6">Kim presented Putin with artworks</a>, which Ushakov hinted were "related to the image" of the president.<h2 id="60a3fb63-8ead-4583-838b-d5e0d245e23d">Russia's answer to "The Beast"</h2>The Aurus Senat was unveiled in 2018 by the State Research Center of the Russian Federation. It is used as Putin's official state car.<a target="_blank" href="https://aurusmotors.com/aurus_senat?lang=en">According to the Aurus Motors website,</a> the Senat limousine is "the embodiment of the dignity and power inherent in the Russian character. A car that combines excellent driving performance, immaculate comfort and unrivalled passenger safety."<div type="image" title="Aurus Senat" height="1824" width="2736" msid="111188653" hostid="261" sizebytes="98590"></div>The vehicle is powered by a 598 horsepower, 4.4-liter, twin-turbo V-8 engine and can go from 0 to 60 mph in six seconds. It has a top speed of around 155 mph.Like the US president's Cadillac state car — which is nicknamed "The Beast" — the Russian Senat is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-armored-limo-looks-like-mercedes-pullman-rolls-royce-2018-8">bulletproof and bombproof</a>. The Aurus can also be fully submerged in water and has steel-reinforced tires.The Aurus Motors website describes the Aurus Senat as "the most protected luxury car in the world."<div type="image" title="Aurus Senat Interior 2.JPG" height="2155" width="3000" msid="111188655" hostid="261" sizebytes="269594"></div>In 2021, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/russia-begins-production-high-end-sedan-promoted-by-putin-2021-05-31/">Reuters</a> reported that an Aurus with basic features would cost 18 million rubles, which is just over $200,000 today.A senior Russian official said last month that Russia would start producing Aurus cars at a former Toyota factory in Saint Petersburg later this year, <a target="_blank" href="https://tass.ru/ekonomika/20731859">Russian state news agency TASS reported</a>.In September 2022, Toyota announced that it had decided to stop vehicle production in its Saint Petersburg plant "due to the interruption in supply of key materials and parts."

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Vladimir Putin once made Italy's prime minister throw up by shooting a deer, carving out its heart, and offering it to the man raw: report

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