Coronavirus cases in India can rise 230,000 in a month, and 1.3 million by May: Report


  • By May 15, India can report anywhere between 97,000 and 1.3 million Coronavirus cases says a US-based study.
  • The first 50 cases in India were reported over a span of forty days but the cases doubled to hundred in a week. Moreover, it took only five more days to reach the 200 mark.
  • India’s crippling healthcare system might not be able to handle Coronavirus cases in large numbers.
  • As of March 17, here were 15,980 isolation beds and 37,326 quarantine beds available in India.
India can report anywhere between 100,000 to 1.3 million cases of Coronavirus if it continues to grow at the current pace, says US-based study. By the end of April, it might rise to 230,000.

“By May 15, we estimate anywhere between 97,000 to 1.3 million people may be infected across India,” said Bhramar Mukherjee, chair of biostatistics at the University of Michigan School of Public.

The study was conducted by 13 academicians including a professor from Delhi School of Economics. It projected these estimates based on cases reported till March 22. The aassements is based on the daily case data managed by Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

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In the last few weeks, India witnessed an exponential rise in confirmed cases. The first 50 cases in India were reported over a span of forty days but they doubled to hundred in a week. Moreover, it took only five more days to reach the 200 mark. Currently, there are over 500 people who tested positive.

Thousands of cases against very few beds available

India’s crippling healthcare system might not be able to handle these cases in large numbers.

“The predicted spike in cases will make it impossible for healthcare providers to support the sheer volume of cases. India has the most overstretched healthcare system where it is hard to provide care in times of normal patient volume,” the report said.
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CountryBeds per 1000 people
India0.7
South Korea 11.5
China4.2
Italy 3.4
France6.5
USA2.8
UK2.9
Iran1.5
Source: World Bank

As of March 17, there were 15,980 isolation beds and 37,326 quarantine beds available in India. In other words, there is only one isolation bed per 84,000 people and one quarantine per 36,000 Indians. Moreover, there is only one doctor per 11,600 Indian and one hospital bed per 1,826, said a data collection by the Union Health Ministry.

The situation makes it worse for doctors and nurses who also lack personal protective equipment.
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Build hospitals just like in China

The trend, however, will depend on how aggressively the government takes steps to fight the pandemic. According to the report, India should increase testing so that all the number of positive cases can be taken into account. Moreover it should also immediately start working on creating more healthcare facilities — just like China.

On March 24, Indian government instructed all the state governments to fund more quarantines and set up hospitals.
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See also:
India can double coronavirus test kits to 200,000 in a week, thanks to Pune-based Mylabs
The third stage of coronavirus spread in India can be delayed but not stopped, says ICMR
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