scorecardThis is how global economies are expected to grow in the first year after Coronavirus pandemic
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This is how global economies are expected to grow in the first year after Coronavirus pandemic

This is how global economies are expected to grow in the first year after Coronavirus pandemic
PolicyPolicy7 min read
  • Moody’s slashed India growth forecast for the year 2020 to 0.2%, from 2.5% projected in March.
  • China’s economy is forecasted to grow by 1% in 2020.
  • Moody’s said the economic costs of the Coronavirus crisis amid the nearly shutdown of the global economy are accumulating rapidly.
Moody’s Investors Service lowered G-20 advanced and emerging economies growth forecasts for the calendar year 2020, on Tuesday (April 28).

In its report title — Global Macro Outlook 2020-21 (April 2020 update), Moody’s slashed India’s growth forecast for calendar year 2020 to 0.2%, from 2.5% it had projected in March. It also expects China’s economy to grow by 1% in 2020.

The rating agency said that the economic costs of the Coronavirus crisis amid the near shutdown of the global economy are accumulating rapidly. It expects G-20 advanced economies as a group to contract by 5.8% in 2020. Even with a gradual recovery, 2021 real GDP in most advanced economies is expected to be below pre-coronavirus levels.

For 2021, Moody’s expects India’s growth to rebound to 6.2%.

“India extended a nationwide lockdown to 40 days from 21 days, but relaxed restrictions in rural areas to facilitate agricultural harvesting in the second half of April. The country has determined that many of these areas are free of the virus. India also plans a phased opening of different regions while continuing to carry out identification and contract tracing,” Moody’s said.

Here’s Moody’s forecast for G-20 advanced economies.
Real GDP Growth

2020

2021

US

-5.7

4.5

Europe

-6.5

4.2

Japan

-6.5

2.7

Germany

-5.5

4.8

UK

-7

4.7

France

-6.3

4.5

Italy

-8.2

4.9

Canada

-6.1

4.2

Australia

-4.9

3.7

South Korea

-0.5

2.7

Total

-5.8

4.2


Here’s Moody’s forecast for G-20 emerging economies.

Real GDP Growth

2020

2021

China

1

7.1

India

0.2

6.2

Brazil

-5.2

3.3

Russia

-5.5

2.2

Mexico

-7

2.2

Indonesia

0.2

5

Turkey

-5

3.5

Saudi Arabia

-3.8

2.5

Argentina

-6

2.5

South Africa

-6.5

4.5

Total

-1

5.7


SEE ALSO: Coronavirus cases in India state wise
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