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  4. Elon Musk hints Starship rocket may explode on first orbital launch, predicting 50% chance of success and 'guaranteeing excitement'

Elon Musk hints Starship rocket may explode on first orbital launch, predicting 50% chance of success and 'guaranteeing excitement'

Marianne Guenot,Morgan McFall-Johnsen   

Elon Musk hints Starship rocket may explode on first orbital launch, predicting 50% chance of success and 'guaranteeing excitement'
  • SpaceX is prepping for $4 as soon as Monday, April 17.
  • Starship is the cornerstone rocket for $4.

SpaceX received a launch license from the Federal Aviation Administration on Friday to launch its Starship rocket to orbit. This license marked the last regulatory step between Starship and space.

The company spared no time in planning Starship's first orbital launch. Shortly after receiving the license, $4 that it was aiming to launch Starship as soon as Monday, April 17, kicking off $4's ambitious scheme to eventually build an independent $4.

Musk has said that SpaceX is ready to $4 — an area the company calls "Starbase" — once it receives a launch license from the Federal Aviation Administration.

As with any first launch, though, $4 in the rocket's intricate hardware or software engineering could easily make everything go wrong.

In an $4 at the Morgan Stanley Conference on March 7, Musk said the rocket has a 1 in 2 chance of not reaching orbit.

"I'm not saying it will get to orbit, but I am guaranteeing excitement," he said, adding: "Won't be boring!"

"I think it's got, I don't know, hopefully about a 50% chance of reaching orbit," Musk said, adding that SpaceX is building $4 and that overall, there's about an 80% chance one of them will reach orbit this year.

If the history of $4 tells us anything, it's that a failure to reach orbit could mean the rocket blows up.

Starship has exploded before, but its future could be bright

If successful, the launch will prove the world's first fully reusable orbital rocket, setting the stage for SpaceX to revolutionize the orbital economy.

Starship and its 230 ft-tall booster, $4, are both designed to land themselves back on Earth to fly again another day.

That's a major money-saving measure, since SpaceX would not have to build a new upper stage for every rocket launch. Starship is also designed to haul giant payloads into space, up to 250 metric tonnes of payload into orbit, up to 150 metric tonnes if the rocket is to be reused, per the SpaceX $4.

This would increase efficiency to make it cheaper to send satellites, spacecraft, cargo, and people into Earth's orbit and beyond, to the moon and Mars.

Starship's promise of reusability and sheer flight power has made it attractive to NASA, which $4 for the first time since 1972. The agency aims to achieve that historic moon landing in the mid-2020s.

First, though, Starship has to orbit Earth and return safely. Two years ago, $4, launching Starship prototypes six miles into the air above Boca Chica.

The first four exploded, with only one $4.

Finally, $4 roared 33,000 feet into the air, cut its engines to plunge back toward Earth, then reignited them just in time to flip itself upright and lower gently onto the landing pad.

Starship hasn't flown since. Its first attempt to fly to orbit will be its biggest test yet.



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