"I think this fall is going to be really challenging for schools," Richard Besser, former acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told NBC's "Today" show on Tuesday. "I think children belong in the classroom. But what we're going to see is little outbreaks, clusters in different schools, schools shutting down, reopening."
Already, pediatric infections are on the rise: The US recorded nearly 94,000 child COVID-19 cases between July 30 and August 5 - more than double the number of pediatric cases recorded during the two weeks prior. Pediatric hospitalizations have risen 27%, on average, in the last week, as shown in the chart below.
Scientists agree that the Delta variant has made school outbreaks more likely. The variant is two to three times as contagious as the original version of the virus, according to one estimate, and vaccinated people can still spread Delta to others.
"The Delta variant has created a new and pressing risk to children and adolescents across this country, as it has also done for unvaccinated adults," Dr. Lee Savio Beers, president of the American Academy of Pediatrics, wrote in a recent letter to the Food and Drug Administration.
The letter called upon the FDA to "ensure that COVID-19 vaccines for children can be authorized as swiftly as possible."
Bans on mask mandates make it difficult to control transmission in Texas and Florida
"Masking and distancing still works for Delta. It's just that you have to be more meticulous," Hilary Babcock, the medical director of infection prevention at Barnes-Jewish Hospital and St. Louis Children's Hospital in Missouri, recently told Insider.
But both Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis recently banned mask mandates in schools. DeSantis even threatened on Monday to withhold funding for schools that require masks.
Florida and Texas are seeing more daily pediatric hospitalizations than any other US state: On average, Texas recorded 54 pediatric hospitalizations per day between August 1 and 9 (the most recent data available). Florida, meanwhile, recorded 40 pediatric hospitalizations per day over the same period. The national average was just five daily pediatric hospitalizations per state during that time.
Several Florida and Texas counties are pushing back on their state's anti-mask policies, though. In Texas, officials in Dallas and Bexar counties recently won court orders challenging Abbott's school mask ban. And some Florida counties, including Palm Beach, continue to require face coverings inside school buildings and on school transportation, contrary to DeSantis' rule.
Some Texas schools have found it similarly difficult to enforce mask requirements.
"You can't ask people to wear a mask. You can't require people to stay home. You can't require people to get tested. I felt safer last year coming back to school than I do this year," Becca Harkleroad, a school nurse in Central Texas, told the 19th on Thursday.
One glimmer of hope is that vaccines may soon be available to kids ages 5 to 11: Pfizer expects to have data about its vaccine's efficacy among this age group by the end of September. That would put the US on track to start administering vaccines to young kids sometime in October, assuming the FDA authorizes them.
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