Billionaire investor Ray Dalio flagged the risk of a Russia-Ukraine clash — and warned a war might be coming

• Ray Dalio suggested Russia-Ukraine frictions could intensify earlier this year.
• The billionaire investor has warned a war may be coming, and the divided US might be vulnerable.

Ray Dalio raised the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine clash, warned a war might be coming, and cautioned foreign powers could challenge America's global leadership, in blog posts and interviews in recent months.

The billionaire co-chief investor of Bridgewater Associates $4 in January that the US could be rocked by inflation, tighter monetary policy, and a disputed presidential election over the next couple of years. He suggested overseas conflicts might exacerbate those challenges.

"The frictions related to Taiwan and China, and Ukraine and Russia, could heat up," he said.

Moreover, the hedge fund manager and economic historian has expressed deep concern about a war on the horizon.

"My greatest fear is where we are in the war/peace cycle," Dalio wrote in a $4. "History shows that after extended periods of war, most people become peacemakers, and after extended periods of peace, most people become warmongers."

That's the case, Dalio explained, because wars are so "unimaginably terrible" that even supporters of them balk at waging another one. Meanwhile, people who have never lived through one develop a "dangerous boldness." He warned the increasing polarization of political views in the US has paved the way for violence to break out.

Similarly, Dalio $4 during the US-China trade war in 2019, because he feared world leaders would allow it to escalate into a full-blown battle.

"Conflicts can easily slip beyond their control and become terrible wars that all parties, including the leaders who got their countries into them, deeply regretted," he said.

Economic issues such as spiraling debt, stubborn inflation, and a vast wealth gap have historically led to fights for control of countries, Dalio said in a $4 this month. Strife and discord can make world powers vulnerable, especially when foreign rivals are strong enough to challenge them, he continued.

"I believe we are in this period now," he said, likely referring to the threats posed by Russia and China to the US today.

Dalio's deep familiarity with Russia makes it unlikely he's overstating the situation. He has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss economic policy several times, $4 in January 2020.

The Bridgewater boss also touted Russia's enormous potential during the $4 in Davos in 2017.

He pointed to the country's unrivaled natural resources, highly educated population, cost-competitive workforce, and low debt levels as strengths. However, he flagged the underdevelopment of its capital markets, and its $4, as weaknesses.

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