Billionaire investor Ray Dalio flagged the risk of a Russia-Ukraine clash — and warned a war might be coming
Ray Daliosuggested Russia-Ukraine frictions could intensify earlier this year.
- The billionaire investor has warned a
warmay be coming, and the divided US might be vulnerable.
Ray Dalio raised the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine clash, warned a war might be coming, and cautioned foreign powers could challenge America's global leadership, in blog posts and interviews in recent months.
The billionaire co-chief investor of
"The frictions related to Taiwan and China, and
Moreover, the hedge fund manager and economic historian has expressed deep concern about a war on the horizon.
"My greatest fear is where we are in the war/peace cycle," Dalio wrote in a recent LinkedIn post. "History shows that after extended periods of war, most people become peacemakers, and after extended periods of peace, most people become warmongers."
That's the case, Dalio explained, because wars are so "unimaginably terrible" that even supporters of them balk at waging another one. Meanwhile, people who have never lived through one develop a "dangerous boldness." He warned the increasing polarization of political views in the US has paved the way for violence to break out.
Similarly, Dalio urged restraint during the US-China trade war in 2019, because he feared world leaders would allow it to escalate into a full-blown battle.
"Conflicts can easily slip beyond their control and become terrible wars that all parties, including the leaders who got their countries into them, deeply regretted," he said.
Economic issues such as spiraling debt, stubborn inflation, and a vast wealth gap have historically led to fights for control of countries, Dalio said in a LinkedIn post this month. Strife and discord can make world powers vulnerable, especially when foreign rivals are strong enough to challenge them, he continued.
"I believe we are in this period now," he said, likely referring to the threats posed by Russia and China to the US today.
Dalio's deep familiarity with Russia makes it unlikely he's overstating the situation. He has met with Russian President
The Bridgewater boss also touted Russia's enormous potential during the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos in 2017.
He pointed to the country's unrivaled natural resources, highly educated population, cost-competitive workforce, and low debt levels as strengths. However, he flagged the underdevelopment of its capital
Read more: Deutsche Bank says an escalation of conflict in Russia and Ukraine could force gas prices 50% higher and see oil rise 20%. Here are the 6 sectors of the market most vulnerable to those increases — and the 2 set to be beneficiaries
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