An 'ice-free' summer awaits the Arctic within ten years, study finds!

The sheer size of the Arctic is often underestimated. Spanning 14 million square kilometres, the icy sea is large enough to contain India more than four times over. With about half of this area covered in ice 3-5 metres thick, one can grasp the enormity of the energy required to melt it completely.

Yet, a recent study has suggests that the Arctic may experience summer days with minimal sea ice within the next ten years, prompting globe-makers to update their charts. Once again, the blame falls on the accelerating impacts of climate change.

In this context, "ice-free" refers to an area with less than one million square kilometres of ice—just 7% of the Arctic Sea—leaving the region mostly submerged in water. While previous projections had placed the possibility of ice-free conditions in September around the middle of the century, this new research suggests it could occur more than a decade earlier.

Although Arctic ice has been steadily diminishing over the past fifty years, the most dramatic decline occurs during the summers. Even September months are projected to become ice-free between 2035 and 2067. By the century's end, continual high emissions could lead to ice-free conditions from May to January, whereas a low-emission scenario might restrict this to August to October.

Lead author of the research, Alexandra Jahn, explained that this would transform the Arctic into a completely different environment, from a white summer Arctic to a blue Arctic. So even if ice-free conditions are unavoidable, we still need to keep our emissions as low as possible to avoid prolonged ice-free conditions.

The rapid loss of Arctic sea ice is anticipated to have far-reaching implications. It will disrupt not only the habitats of polar bears, seals, and walruses but also impact coastal communities reliant on sea ice for protection against erosion and extreme weather.

The study also underscores the potential for mitigating climate change effects. Researchers believe that global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop carbon dioxide removal technologies could lead to Arctic sea ice recovery within a decade, even if it disappears entirely.

Jahn stated, "Unlike the ice sheet in Greenland that took thousands of years to build, even if we melt all the Arctic sea ice, if we can then figure out how to take CO2 back out of the atmosphere in the future to reverse warming, sea ice will come back within a decade."

These findings stress the urgency of addressing climate change and transitioning to cleaner energy sources. Immediate action could potentially alleviate the dire consequences of Arctic sea ice loss and safeguard this unique ecosystem for future generations. The study's results have been published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.