Flights could get bumpier as climate change makes air turbulence much more frequent

Grab onto your seats, climate change is going to make things very bumpy — especially if you're in the air!

Encountering air turbulence can be harrowing. The uncertainty of what's actually happening with the aircraft during the incident, coupled with the fact that you are literally ten kilometres up in the sky, can easily mess with your head, even though actual cases of air turbulence-related injuries are rare.

And now, scientists think these incidents are only going to become more common, tripling in frequency between 2050 and 2080.

"We have accumulated a large body of scientific evidence now that turbulence is increasing because of climate change," notes Paul Williams, author of the study. "An invisible form called clear-air turbulence is generated by wind shear which, because of climate change, is now 15% stronger than in the 1970s. We expect a further strengthening of the wind shear in the coming decades, perhaps doubling or tripling the amount of severe turbulence."

Wind shear refers to a change in the direction or speed of wind current. When this happens suddenly, the "rogue" winds can nudge the aircraft in different directions, shaking the rigid object violently. This is also the same phenomenon that makes wind turbines spin and helps devastating tornadoes develop.

However, while the chance for turbulence might become more frequent, that does not necessarily mean we'll encounter it more often, it turns out.

"Turbulence forecasts that pilots use to plan smooth flight routes are improving all the time, modern aircraft are better at handling turbulence, and passenger compliance with seatbelt advice may be improving," Paul explains. "Whether the more turbulent atmosphere translates into more injuries remains to be seen."

Turbuluence-related injuries often bring to mind the tragic incident from May 2022, when a massive turbulence on a SpiceJet flight to West Bengal led to 11 hospitalisations. This sparked debate around better weather forecasting and intelligence since the plane recklessly flew into a major thunderstorm during the incident. According to SpiceJet officials’ initial reports, "the pilot did not see anything on his weather radar to warn him of severe turbulence".

As the Earth warms, wind shear is getting stronger and more widespread. In addition, global warming-induced hot air would reduce the amount of drag available to keep planes in the air, effectively bringing down the weight planes can carry. We’re also witnessing increasing fuel consumption in some areas due to wind speed changes in upper atmospheric levels.

These outcomes, while concerning, are part of a vicious cycle considering the aviation industry’s noticeable carbon footprint. This makes climate action even more the need of the hour to mitigate the wide assortment of detriments that global warming has creeped into every facet of our lives.

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