Nearly all countries will struggle to maintain population levels by 2100, thanks to crashing birth rates: IHME

India's status as the most populous nation has propelled its development to unprecedented heights. However, the trajectory of the world's largest democracy is poised for a significant downturn due to a rapid decline in fertility rates.

From an average of 6.2 births per woman in 1950 plummeting to merely two in 2021, India faces a staggering decline in fertility rates that could jeopardise future population stability. Yet, this predicament is not exclusive to India alone.

A groundbreaking study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasts a global demographic shift in the coming decades, with a substantial decline in childbirth across most regions. Over three-quarters of countries are expected to struggle to maintain their population sizes by 2050, escalating to more than 97% by the century's end. This trend will create a stark contrast between regions experiencing declining birth rates and those witnessing a surge in childbirth, leading to what experts term a "demographically divided world."

Industrialised nations grappling with shrinking birth rates will confront economic challenges stemming from a dwindling workforce and the burden of supporting ageing populations. Conversely, low-income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, anticipate a baby boom, with the region projected to account for over half of the world's births by the century's close. While youthful population growth can drive economic and social progress, nurturing these burgeoning populations in resource-constrained settings, plagued by political instability and strained healthcare systems, presents formidable challenges.

Several factors contribute to the declining fertility rates, including the economic strain of raising children and the empowerment of women through education and reproductive rights. However, safeguarding women's rights amidst the fertility crisis remains paramount, as nations may resort to restrictive measures that curtail reproductive freedoms.

Natalia Bhattacharjee, study author, underscores the importance of upholding women's rights, which correlates with improved health outcomes and economic growth. The study underscores the urgency of proactive planning to address demographic shifts, suggesting policy interventions such as parental leave, childcare support, and financial incentives. Nonetheless, many countries, including India, are projected to fall below replacement levels, necessitating reliance on immigration to sustain economic vitality in the long run.

The findings of this study have been published in The Lancet.