Why is everyone concerned about the Earth being 1.5°C warmer for 12 months in a row?

In 2015, the Paris Agreement set an ambitious benchmark: implementing enough climate action to keep global warming to a maximum of 1.5°C above the normal temperatures observed between 1850-1900. This was the first limit set by the Paris Agreement, and some even believed that collective action from all the countries could make it possible!

Last month, for the first time in recorded history, Earth endured the 12th consecutive month with temperatures 1.5°C hotter than the pre-industrial era, shattering the hopes of those few extreme climate optimists. The Copernicus' Climate Change Service's (C3S) January 2024 report confirmed this alarming trend, putting into a numerical perspective a year marred thoroughly by a super El Niño, devastating droughts, scorching temperatures, and deadly wildfires.

Among the long and lamentable list of records, the report notes that the global mean temperatures from February 2023 to January 2024 have averaged about 1.52°C above the pre-industrial average. This is the highest this mercury has consistently soared in recorded history.

Breaking the threshold!

If you've somehow managed to keep yourself from the onslaught of climate news coverage in recent times, here's a refresher on our temperature "targets". The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected repeatedly that the catastrophic (and potentially irreversible) consequences of climate change and extreme weather would materialise as we start breaching the 1.5°C threshold.

So far, all recent studies indicate that we are, quite unfortunately, on track to blaze past this point in this decade itself. While the world collectively breached 1.5°C for over half of the days in 2023, there was some consolation in knowing that this threshold-crossing trend has to be sustained for a few successive years before any mighty conclusions can be drawn. However, C3S's latest report just puts into perspective how little breathing room we actually have left.

The record-breaking warming is attributed to a combination of factors, including the naturally occurring El Niño phenomenon and, of course, rising greenhouse gas emissions. While the El Niño is expected to weaken, scientists warn that we're "very, very close to a longer-term breach" of the 1.5°C threshold. The latest UN considerations reckon that we will begin to consistently cross 1.5°C sometime in the late 2020s or early 2030s.

The month of records

Further, January 2024 was a distinct outlier among the warmest of months in recorded history! It shattered several other records too, by becoming the eighth month in a row that was the warmest on record for the respective month of the year with a massive 1.66°C hotter compared to the pre-industrial average. January 2024 dethroned January 2020 by a margin of 0.12°C for the title of warmest ever January.

Beyond land, the above-average heat had a significant impact on the glaciers littering our cold seas as well. While Arctic and Greenland sea ice extents remained slightly high in January, conditions were less than dainty for Antarctica. The report states that the Antarctic sea ice extent was 18% less than the average for this month, making it the sixth lowest it has ever been. However, conditions have improved since last year, when Antarctic sea ice was 31% below average.

Devastating projections

The stark reality is that even rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions may not be enough to prevent further warming and its devastating impacts. However, in practice or on paper, countries aren't doing nearly enough. According to the UN's latest Emission Gap report, current pledges will warm the world by 2.5-2.9°C above pre-industrial levels. If we want to avoid 1.5°C, we need to cut emission levels by a massive 66% of what was observed last year.

This warming carries significant consequences. Experts warn of potential extinctions, crop failures, and irreversible tipping points in the climate system, like the loss of coral reefs and accelerated sea level rise. The Amazon rainforest, already facing drought, could be pushed towards a dangerous tipping point, transforming into a savannah-like ecosystem, scientists worry.

The most vulnerable populations are already suffering at the hands of extreme weather variables. The monsoon, India's lifeblood, is becoming increasingly erratic due to climate change. In 2023, heavy monsoon rains caused devastating floods in Assam, displacing millions and leaving a trail of destruction. Conversely, parts of Maharashtra faced severe droughts, impacting agricultural production and livelihoods. This unpredictability threatens food security for millions who rely on rain-fed agriculture.

Even heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, with devastating consequences. And similar stories unfold across vulnerable regions like island nations facing rising sea levels and African countries grappling with intensified droughts and floods. These regions often lack the infrastructure, resources, and technology to adapt to these changes, making them even more susceptible.

Read a summary of the report here.