The next economic crisis is almost here -- will it be worse than 2008?

• Global bankruptcy expert Professor Edward Altman warns that global debt levels are too high
• Macro-economic data, Fed's policy, oil and gold prices, all point to an unfolding recession
• Unsecured, short-term credit to corporates has ballooned in India too
• On the other hand, S&P Global Ratings expects the next crisis to be milder than the one in 2008

The US Federal Reserve set off alarm bells when it unexpectedly decided not to hike interest rates. The signal from Fed has eroded the markets' confidence in the world's largest economy and triggered fears of another recession. And when a giant economy like America wobbles, panic is inevitable.

Markets are tumbling across the world and India is no exception. Benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, fell as much as a percent on Monday as investors were gripped by the fears of a global crisis. And the next economic crisis may be bigger than the one in 2008, according to global bankruptcy expert Professor Edward Altman.

"Impact of the crisis will depend on the level of debt. Debt levels in US are twice as much as it was just before 2008 crisis. Default rate when it rises it will rise against a lot more debt than ever before," Altman told Business Insider in an interview in February. "Default rates peak after a recession," he added.

The total debt in US was 231% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) compared to 208% in June 2008, according to S&P Global Ratings. US corporate debt has gone from nearly $4.9 trillion in 2007, before the crisis blew up, to nearly $9.1 trillion by June 2018, according to Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association data quoted by CNBC in November last year.

The picture may be equally ominous even for India, where government debt-to-GDP ratio is 68.4%. The only other emerging economy whose debt situation is worse than that of India is Brazil, according to an analysis by Motilal Oswal.

Not just the government, one in every $10 lent to emerging market corporates, is reportedly borrowed by a company in India. “A significant global economic slowdown may trigger a severe risk-off, which could spill over into our markets,” Upasana Bharadwaj, senior economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank told Reuters.

Higher the debt, deeper the crisis

As Indian banks found themselves saddled by bad loans, and the corrective measures constrained them from lending more, companies gravitated towards bond markets, ratings agency Crisil said in a report last year.

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