Supercomputer shows tropical cyclones hitting India are going to get more destructive — that is until the flooding starts
- The IBS
supercomputerAleph has confirmed that tropical cyclonesin the Indian and the Pacific Ocean are likely to get more intense as climate changeworsens, increasing the likelihood of them being worse than category three.
- Aleph also found a previously unknown ‘
- It is the point when excessive flooding will replace these intense cyclones as temperatures increase by more than 5 degrees Celsius and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere quadruples.
India’s coastal cities will need to shore up their defences with tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean predicted to get worse by one of the largest supercomputers in the world — the IBS supercomputer Aleph.
View all Offers
View all Offers
Redmi 9A (Midnight Black, 2GB RAM, 32GB Storage) | 2GHz Octa-Core Helio G25 Processor₹ 6799₹ 8499Buy On
- 16% OFF
Oppo A16 (Pearl Blue, 4GB RAM, 64GB Storage) with No Cost EMI/Additional Exchange Offers₹ 13490₹ 16990Buy On
- 26% OFF
Samsung Galaxy M52 5G (ICY Blue, 6GB RAM, 128GB Storage) Latest Snapdragon 778G 5G | sAMOLED 120Hz Display₹ 25999₹ 34999Buy On
- 10% OFF
Redmi Note 10 Pro (Dark Night, 6GB RAM, 128GB Storage) -120hz Super Amoled Display|64MPwith 5mp Super Tele-Macro₹ 17999₹ 19999Buy On
- 17% OFF
Redmi Note 10 Pro Max (Glacial Blue, 6GB RAM, 128GB Storage) -108MP Quad Camera|120Hz Super Amoled Display₹ 18999₹ 24999Buy On
Even if global warming reaches ‘saturation’ and the cyclones subside, India will have to deal with coastal flooding.
It took 13 months, with the supercomputer generating 2,000 terabytes (TBs) of data, for researchers at South Korea's IBS Center for Climate Physics ( ICCP) to find this previously unknown ‘saturation effect’.
According to the study published in Science Advances, if global warming exceeds 5 degrees Celsius, tropical cyclones will eventually be suppressed. But that will only make way for excessive coastal flooding as the rainfall from each prospective storm increases, resulting in higher sea levels.
The one silver lining
The climate models running Aleph were able to find one bittersweet silver lining — as the cyclones get more intense, they will at least be less frequent.
This confirms the theory put forward by a 2013 study that ran a historical analysis of storms across the world since 1985. It found that the number of category 4 and category 5 storms had increased in recent history, while the number of category 1 and category 2 storms showed a proportional drop.
According to the US weather agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA), if global temperatures increase by 2 degrees Celsius — the global warming temperature limit set by the Paris agreement — the intensity of cyclones could still worsen by as much as 10%.
This means the increase in the destructive potential of a single storm would be even greater.
What’s causing these cyclones to get worse?
If the amount of carbon dioxide doubles, tropical cyclones will be less frequent but the storms that are already developing will have a better chance to intensify beyond category three.
This is because the increased presence of carbon dioxide also means higher humidity and energy levels in the atmosphere.
AdvertisementHowever, if the amount of carbon dioxide quadruples, global temperatures will increase by more than 5 degrees Celsius. And so, people living in coastal areas will have to worry about a more permanent disaster — flooding.
According to a study from 2019, more than two-thirds of Asia’s population is at risk of coastline flooding by 2050. India is only second to China, with one of the highest populations that’s vulnerable to shrinking coastlines.
Zuckerberg spoke to Ambani but there was no chemistry — even with a multi-million dollar partnership between them
After 55 years, India will inaugurate a new railway line with Bangladesh to save its ‘Chicken’s Neck’ from China
PUBG Mobile India may not launch until March next year, says a report citing sources
Popular on BI
- Nykaa IPO will open today — here is how to apply via bank and apps like Zerodha, Paytm Money
- A CryptoPunk NFT bought for $74 resurfaced after four years and just sold for $2 million
- Best DIY wallpapers to revamp your house
- India's largest car maker loses nearly two thirds of its profit to chip shortage
- New Range Rover: Check out expected price in India, features and other details