In novel approach to understand natural variability factors behind five-decade long <keyword id="47162" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="rainfall">rainfall</keyword> decline till the year 2000 in India, a group of <keyword id="6367929" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="scientists">scientists</keyword> has now examined the differing trends in pre- and post-2000 Indian summer monsoon (rainfall), its decline and recovery. The variability manifested itself in a decline in monsoon rainfall over north central India starting in the 1950s, which persisted for as long as five decades before a reversal from 1999 onwards. Dr Xin Huang and Professor Tianjun Zhou from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have been examining the issue more closely using data provided by the UK Met Office and Germany's Max Planck Institute. "We found that neither the five-decade long decline before 2000 nor the subsequent increase can be solely explained as a response to external climate forcing," said Huang in a paper published in Journal of Climate. "Instead, we have demonstrated the crucial role of natural variability". External forcing includes changes in greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use, etc. Natural variability refers to variations in the mean state due to internal processes within the climate system. They are often regarded as "signal" and "noise" in climate studies, respectively. "Increase of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere generally tends to increase rainfall over India. Up to the year 2000, however, it appeared that the natural variability had been able to override this effect, resulting in the overall decrease," explained Huang. In addition to anthropogenic climate change, rainfall changes in recent decades are also influenced by natural sea surface temperature oscillation over Pacific basin. The prominent natural variability in Pacific sea surface temperature is usually described as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The scientists found that the differing phases of the IPO played subtle, but crucial supplementary roles in the recent interdecadal variations of the ISM rainfall. Fluctuations in the IPO induced anomalous thermal contrasts between the north and south and changes to ascent and descent throughout the region. These, in turn, resulted in changes to the horizontal advection, from the west and east, of moisture into India, the authors wrote. The study supports, and brings together, for the first time, many of the different explanations that have been proposed in previous studies. "Going forward, the study emphasises the importance of robust, reliable handling, and indeed prediction, of the IPO in climate models, to ensure that projections of future Indian summer monsoon climate, are suitable for use by policy makers", added Zhou. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/first-week-of-india-unlock-1-heres-what-worked-and-what-didnt/articleshow/76351605.cms">First week of Unlock 1.0 – Here’s what worked and what didn’t</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/infosys-faces-a-racial-discrimination-suit-in-the-us-as-black-lives-matter-protests-rise-in-the-country/articleshow/76353028.cms">Indian IT giant Infosys faces a racial discrimination suit in the US as Black Lives Matter protests rise in the country</a>

Scientists are now studying why India saw a five decade long decline in rainfall until 2000

<ul><li>India is facing two extreme weather conditions together— drought and floods. </li><li>One corner of the country — Assam and parts of Bihar is fighting heavy floods. Others like <keyword id="12864" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chennai">Chennai</keyword> and Hyderabad are running dry, due to light or no showers at all.</li><li>The seasonal monsoon rains which are supposed to start in June were late in almost every part of the country.</li></ul>India is facing two extreme weather conditions together — heavy floods and drought. That is affecting millions of people, particularly the poor. These extreme weather conditions will weaken the economic productivity, in addition to wreaking destruction, and displacing a large number of people. The seasonal monsoon rains which are supposed to start in June were late in almost every part of the country. One corner of the country — Assam and parts of Bihar is fighting heavy floods. Others like Chennai and Hyderabad are running dry, due to light or no showers at all. Too Little, too late India’s monsoon is crucial as it accounts for 70% of its annual rainfall. If the monsoons are lower or slower, it leads to water crisis, due to its almost exclusive dependence on it. The government think tank NITI Aayog expects as many as 21 cities to be devoid of ground water by 2020. Cities are running dry one after the other.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/five-years-on-india-may-not-even-get-a-chance-to-solve-its-on-going-water-crisis-risking-hundreds-of-millions-of-lives/articleshow/69988627.cms"> First Chennai went dry and with less or no drinking water for its citizens</a>. Now, the twin cities of Hyderabad and <keyword id="6354398" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="secunderabad">Secunderabad</keyword> — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/water-crisis-hyderabad-may-not-have-drinking-water-in-next-48-days/articleshow/70223928.cms">have less than two months to go for monsoon to fix its water problems</a>. And, they are already late and lower than expected. Water crisis has become common almost every year. In 2018, 600 million Indians were exposed to acute water crisis, according to Niti Aayog. In 2017, five south Indian states faced water shortages like Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Too Much Uncertain weather patterns brought too much rain leading floods and landslides in Assam. At least 28 districts in Assam are affected. So far, 30 people have been reported dead and 5.8 million displaced due to monsoon floods in Assam. The water level of Brahmaputra continues to rise above the danger mark in at least 10 places, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southasia-floods/millions-stranded-in-india-as-early-monsoon-downpours-bring-flood-havoc-idUSKCN1UC1E2">reported Reuters</a>, citing Assam Disaster Management Authority. People are forced to drink dirty water and eat anything they get. Parts of Bihar too are flooded, forcing evacuation of affected residents. Separately, a second spell of monsoon is likely to bring extremely heavy rains in the coming days in Kerala. Six districts in the state including Idukki, <keyword id="69399" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Malappuram">Malappuram</keyword>, and Wayanad are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/high-alert-in-six-districts-of-kerala-idukki-malappuram-wayanad-thrissur-kannur-for-heavy-rainfall/articleshow/70256251.cms">on high alert from 18 July to 20 July. </a> Last year in August 2018, Kerala was swept away by deadly monsoon rains taking as many as 504 lives. The state, was caught off guard and 3.4 million people were displaced. In all, 23 million people were affected at the price of $2.7 billion, reported India spend. Unexpected weather conditions have been dogging the country for a few years now. Two years back, heavy rains and widespread flooding across India, Bangladesh and Nepal led to death of 1,200 people. As many as 805,183 homes and 18 million people were affected in Northern India. The total damages and destructions by the floods in 2017 were $2.5 billion, according to Central Water Commission. See also: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/water-crisis-hyderabad-may-not-have-drinking-water-in-next-48-days/articleshow/70223928.cms">India’s water crisis deepens as Hyderabad might run out of water, like Chennai</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/five-years-on-india-may-not-even-get-a-chance-to-solve-its-on-going-water-crisis-risking-hundreds-of-millions-of-lives/articleshow/69988627.cms">Five years on, India may not even get a chance to solve its on-going water crisis risking hundreds of millions of lives</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/high-alert-in-six-districts-of-kerala-idukki-malappuram-wayanad-thrissur-kannur-for-heavy-rainfall/articleshow/70256251.cms">The weatherman has warned of heavy rains in Kerala, which just got $250 million World Bank aid to recover from last year's floods</a>

Bone dry or deluge — the freakish monsoon is killing Indians either way

In a town in western <a class="link-text" href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/india">India</a>, every conversation involves a possible solution to the crisis.Standing in his brown, dusty field, Narayan Mahale looks at the Wagh river that runs under the cliff on which his field lies, and is convinced the solution is a piped supply of water. Less than 5km away, Ramchandra Mahale believes a dam will suffice. His neighbour, Anita Gaikwad, says the key is to find better ways to harvest rainwater. The villagers in Mokhada, in the Palghar district of India’s western state of Maharashtra, can’t help themselves. <a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/0cd38f20-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/0cd38f20-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/0cd38f20-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/0cd38f20-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"><img class="wrapper__img preview-img-item" src="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/0cd38f20-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_972x_115323.jpg" /> Farmer Narayan Mahale can see the river, now drying, flowing past through the year. But that water often does not reach him. Photo: Kunal Purohit </a> This region is facing a crushing <keyword id="68552" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="water-scarcity">water scarcity</keyword>. Dominated mostly by tribal hamlets, Mokhada is underdeveloped – it has a literacy rate that is two-thirds lower than the national rate of 74 per cent; it sees hundreds of children dying each year due to poor nourishment and health care facilities. Very few villages have any piped supply of water. As a result, many of them have to depend on common wells. But last year’s scarce rainfall meant that many village wells ran dry by January this year. It isn’t just Palghar alone; 43 per cent of India is gripped by a severe drought, being abnormally to exceptionally dry. <a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/3e6424e0-9bef-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/3e6424e0-9bef-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/3e6424e0-9bef-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/3e6424e0-9bef-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"><img class="wrapper__img preview-img-item" src="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/3e6424e0-9bef-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_972x_115323.jpg" /> Map of the areas facing drought in India. Graphic: SCMP</a> But Mokhada’s drought carries a heavy and almost tragic sense of irony. It is not a dry region; five rivers originate here. The region generally sees over 2,400 millimetres of rainfall a year. But instead of providing for the locals, much of the water is diverted to Mumbai – which gets a major chunk of its water from here – along with other cities and industrial corridors. The scarcity can turn fatal. In April 2012, a woman died from the exertion of trying to fetch water. In addition, the hilly terrain in the region means the rainwater does not percolate but instead, slides off down the valley into the rivers. Locals are left with the hard choice of staring at rivers flowing past, even as they struggle for each drop. <a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/5d2d5df2-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/5d2d5df2-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/5d2d5df2-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/5d2d5df2-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"><img class="wrapper__img preview-img-item" src="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/5d2d5df2-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_972x_115323.jpg" /> Mathura Waghare, a resident of Brahmanpada village in Mokhada, stands with a drum of water. Such drums cost as much as US$5-6. Photo: Kunal Purohit</a> SLEEPLESS NIGHTS SPENT DODGING SNAKES AND SCORPIONS The crisis is overturning the lives of Mokhada locals, who are staying awake through the night in search of water. Mathura Waghare, 35, from the tribal village of Brahmanpada, now has a routine that revolves around getting adequate water for her supply to survive each day. The village’s only source of water, a common well, ran out of water in January this year. Since then, Waghare has been searching for water in nearby villages on foot. When she found water 2km away in a neighbouring village, she was relieved. But the next day, villagers there were up in arms. 
 <div type="ExtQuote" text="Without water, we can’t survive, so sleep does not matter" auname="Mathura Waghare, villager"></div>


 “People in that village feared that they would run out of water if we continued going there. So, they refused to allow us to fill water,” she says. That’s when Waghare decided that she had had enough. She decided to head into the forest, to a well she knew was a 45-minute walk from Brahmanpada. This did not have much water, but the groundwater area in the table was high, she said. So the villagers would wait at the well every day for groundwater to percolate into the well. Each night at around 3am, Waghare starts walking into the forest with her stainless steel handis (large pots). Most nights, women from the neighbourhood walk with her. “It gets scary to walk alone. There are scorpions and snakes in the forest; the other night, we saw a snake slide past,” Waghare says. <a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/71dbed5e-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/71dbed5e-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/71dbed5e-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"></a><a class="link-text" href="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/71dbed5e-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_image_hires_115323.jpg"><img class="wrapper__img preview-img-item" src="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/71dbed5e-9be4-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_972x_115323.jpg" /> Mathura Mavle dug this pit with her friend, using their bare hands, in their desperation for water. Photo: Kunal Purohit </a> With battery-operated torches in their hands, and balancing the handis on their heads, the women set out each night and sometimes, even multiple times in the day, if they receive unexpected guests or if the water runs out sooner. Once at the well, Waghare queues up, waiting for the water to percolate. “Sometimes, it takes 3-4 hours; other times, there is enough water in an hour. It is unpredictable,” she explains. Water filled, she balances two handis on her head, the third one in her hand, fingers firmly clasped around its neck. On an average day, she sleeps for five hours, before waking up between 2am and 3am. But there are days when her worries are so severe that she cannot sleep. “So, I finish my chores in the night and set out at 10pm or so. Without water, we can’t survive, so sleep does not matter,” she says. TAKING MATTERS INTO HER OWN HANDS Mathura Mavle, 30, sympathises with Waghare’s situation. Mavle lives in the tribal village of Kharawali, about 5km away from Waghare’s Brahmanpada. Just outside Mavle’s house lies a well. But it is bone-dry and its floor lies exposed to the sun. Another well, 1.5km away, is also nearly dry. So one summer day, two months ago, Mavle and Asha H* walked for a kilometre or so, climbing down small rocky cliffs to where a small stream flows past in the monsoons. The stream goes dry by October every year. One rock at a time, they both dug a small hole in the earth, at the base of an old tree. They kept digging through the day. Seven hours later, at a depth of almost one metre, they hit water. <h3 style="border-color: currentcolor; border-style: none; border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch; display: inherit; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 1.71rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 300; line-height: 2.42rem; margin-bottom: 2.35rem; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="link-text" href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3012754/water-shortages-and-heatstroke-warnings-issued-temperatures">Warnings issued as temperatures pass 50 Celsius in India heatwave </a></h3>The women have been trekking to the pit every day since, with their children and sometimes their husbands in tow, to collect water. But digging the hole, they realised, was just half the battle won. Standing over the pit, Mavle says: “There is only as much water a small pit like this can carry. So, whenever it runs out of water, we just sit around, waiting for groundwater to percolate into it.” The unpredictability means locals can be queuing up at the pit for up to half the day. Today isn’t one of those days. Mavle walks into the pit, crouches and patiently fills her pots, one bowl at a time. “We got lucky today,” she says, smiling. MOKHADA’S LONG-STANDING NEGLECT For activists working in the region, Mokhada’s struggles are a result of a long-standing neglect of the region. Brian Lobo, a veteran activist of the Kashtakari Sanghatana (Farmers Collective), says the locals have been clamouring for authorities to address the issue for years. He points to the three major dams in the region – these dams on the Vaitarna river, flowing through the region, supplying daily over 1,000 million litres of water to Mumbai. “We have demanded that the water from one of these dams, the Upper Vaitarna dam in the region be used to fulfil the needs of locals, rather than being diverted for industrial purposes.” Lobo said a study had even found it to be a workable solution. “But, consequent governments refused to implement it,” he said. <h2 style="border-color: currentcolor; border-style: none; border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch; font-family: Merriweather, serif; font-size: 1.71rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: 2.21rem; margin-bottom: 0.42rem; margin-top: 1.14rem; vertical-align: baseline;">This crisis is not just about the poor management of water alone but a broader mismanagement of natural resources. Brian Lobo, activist</h2>One of the first dams in the region, the Modak Sagar Dam, was constructed in 1957 to supply water to Mumbai. The dam supplies over 400 million litres of water to Mumbai each day. The administrative head of Palghar district, Dr Prashant Nanaware, admits that there’s a problem. He says the government is working out a solution. “We also believe that the river’s water can be diverted for locals. We are working on a proposal to have water supply schemes for these parched villages and once approved, we will execute these.” But Mokhada is not alone in experiencing poor water supplies. At a time when a severe water crisis has gripped much of India, including the southern metropolis of Chennai, such similar stories of poor management of water resources abound. <h3 style="border-color: currentcolor; border-style: none; border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch; display: inherit; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 1.71rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 300; line-height: 2.42rem; margin-bottom: 2.35rem; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="link-text" href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3015251/workers-told-shower-less-hotels-ration-water-guests-reservoirs">Workers told to shower less as reservoirs in Chennai city dry up </a></h3>Chennai, a city with over 9 million inhabitants, faces a crippling water shortage – four major reservoirs that form the bulk of its water supply have dipped to less than 1 per cent of their capacity. Other sources are also running out of water. With its official monsoon season at least two more months away, the city is praying for unseasonal rainfall. But even in Chennai, data shows many of the city’s water bodies, which could have been a valuable asset in this scarcity, have become defunct due to poor management as well as allowing construction on it. Similarly, unplanned urbanisation has led to many of its wetlands shrinking to a fraction of their original size in the last few decades. Nityanand Jayaraman, a Chennai-based writer and a social activist who has been tracking environmental causes, says: “This crisis is not just about the poor management of water alone but a broader mismanagement of natural resources. Chennai’s growth has come at the cost of open spaces and water bodies, both of which are taken over and built upon to create more and more housing.” The pattern isn’t unique to Chennai, Jayaraman says. Pointing to other Indian metros, he says: “Across different Indian metros, we have followed this same model of development, one that prioritises needs of housing and commerce but not the environment.” *Name changed because she works for the local government and did not wish to be identified

India’s deadly drought: Villagers in Mokhada battle sleepless nights, snakes in search of water

<ul><li>
As many as 100 million people in the country are suffering from the nation-wide water crisis. </li><li>Moreover, 21 major cities are expected to be devoid of groundwater by 2020, says government think tank NITI Aayog. </li></ul> No drops, No rain, nothing. India is suffering from its worst-ever water crisis in history. It has already started affecting hundreds and millions of lives and livelihoods across the country. And, people are craving for water to drink as well. “How will three pots of water be sufficient for an entire family of five,” asks a resident of Chennai — India’s sixth largest city — which ran out of water after all four reservoirs dried up this summer. 
 
 
 
 <div type="image" title="Chennai: People rush to fill their vessels from a water tanker following acute w..." msid="69988629" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;People rush to fill their vessels from a water tanker following acute water shortage, in Chennai.Photo)(&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>








 A large number of people are now washing utensils in dirty water, to save the clean water for cooking and drinking. There won’t be any relief anytime soon as the southwest monsoon — accounting 80% of India’s rainfall — is late and is expected to be <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/monsoon-to-be-below-normal-over-north-south-india-imd/articleshow/69602283.cms">lower than usual</a> in both north and south India. As many as 100 million people in the country are suffering from the nation-wide water crisis. Moreover, 21 major cities are expected to be devoid of groundwater by 2020, says government think tank NITI Aayog Only some parts of the country have received rainfall — that too almost a week late. Apart from the water crisis, the harsh heatwaves in the country took more than <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/22/india/chennai-india-water-crisis-intl/index.html">137 lives </a>. India’s dwindling water sources worsened the situation. <a href="http://202.159.215.252:83/DocumentUploadRoot/DocumentId_32837/20.06.2019_CWC_Bull.pdf">According to the Central Water Commission</a>, two-thirds water reservoirs in the country are below normal levels. Little Water, No Water — Current status of crisis across the country 
 
 
 
 <div type="image" title="Women fetch water from an opening made by residents at a dried-up lake in Chennai" msid="69988642" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Women fetch water from an opening made by residents at a dried-up lake in Chennai, India, June 11, 2019. REUTERS/P. Ravikumar TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>









 On 2 June 2019, a video of women filling bucket from the water leaked by a water tanker over the road went viral on social media, reported India spend. More than 100 districts across the country are officially affected by drought. Most of the districts (80%) in Karnataka and Maharashtra (72%) are hit by drought and crop failure. As many as 8.2 million farmers are struggling for livelihood. With scarcity comes strife. The state governments of Karnataka and Maharashtra — are now fighting over sharing water resources. Every day, Maharashtra government is sending 6,000 water tankers to 4,920 villages and 10,506 hamlets or settlements (bastis) in drought-hit areas. In the South, the Tamil Nadu government had to sanction Rs 233 crore to initiate emergency water projects. The state capital — Chennai— had to shut down the air conditioning to save as much as 9,000 litres a day. People have to stand in line for hours and they get foul-smelling water that might have been mixed with sewage. Karnataka too was forced to shut schools for a week due to water scarcity. Separately, residents of Bhilwara in Rajasthan have to keep water ‘locked’ in tankers since they depend on drinking water that is supplied once in 10 days. They are worried that it might be stolen! No groundwater by 2020 
 
 
 
 <div type="image" title="India Water Shortage" msid="69988668" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Indiand stand in queues to fill vessels filled with drinking water from a water tanker in Chennai, capital of the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, Wednesday, June 19, 2019. Millions of people are turning to water tank trucks in the state as house and hotel taps run dry in an acute water shortage caused by drying lakes and depleted groundwater. Some private companies have asked employees to work from home and several restaurants are closing early and even considering stopping lunch meals if the water scarcity aggravates.Photo/R. Parthibhan)&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>









AP New Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad are amongst the 21 cities that will run out of groundwater by 2020. This will affect as many as 100 million people, claims a report by NITI Ayog. Furthermore, 40% of India’s population will struggle for drinking water by 2030. With India’s water crisis deepening by the day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently created Ministry of Jal Shakti that is going to look after the water resource management. Modi also reiterated his promise to provide piped water to every rural house in India by 2024. However, analysts have claimed that won’t be enough. A UN Human rights report claimed that soon only wealthy people in the world would be able to afford basic necessities in case of a drought, heatwave or famine. Falling rainfall levels in India 
 
 
 
 <div type="image" title="Chennai: School students offer prayers to rain god seeking rainfall following th..." msid="69988705" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;School students offer prayers to rain god seeking rainfall following the severe water crisis, in Chennai.Photo) (&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>










 The Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) reported that 43.4% areas in the country are under drought as of 30 May 2019. A delayed monsoon is among the primary reasons for the current crisis. In the last five years, 2017 was the only year when India did not experience drought, reported India spend. Both South west monsoon and North-east monsoon were lower than usual. Last year, India Meteorological Department said that the ‘post-monsoon’ rainfall — responsible for 10-20% of the India’s monsoon — was lower by 44%. And the pre-monsoon rainfall was the lowest it saw in the last 65 years. Experts fear that India is soon going to witness Day Zero if no action is taken on time.

Five years on, India may not even get a chance to solve its on-going water crisis risking hundreds of millions of lives

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/52223820.cms" /> 
 
A study has revealed that the severe drought in 10 states of India has impacted the economy by at least Rs 6,50,000 crore, affecting about 33 crore people from 256 districts, reveals an Assocham study. 
 
"The rough estimate indicates that this drought will cost national economy at least Rs 6,50,000 crore or say USD 100 billion," it said. 
 
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Two-years-of-dry-spell-to-end-as-India-to-get-above-average-rainfall/articleshow/51790077.cms">Two consecutive years of poor monsoon </a>has led to water shortage in majority of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Key-reservoirs-in-India-dont-have-enough-water/articleshow/51825053.cms">Indian reservoirs</a>, and has also lowered the ground water table, thus posing a serious threat to the already drought-affected areas in as many as 10 states, including <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Maharashtra-drought-condition/articleshow/51892493.cms">Maharashtra,</a> <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/The-Drought-Series-Telangana-is-facing-its-3rd-consecutive-drought-coupled-with-a-heatwave/articleshow/51931861.cms">Telangana</a>, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/The-Drought-Series-Nearly-3-1-crore-people-in-Karnataka-are-hit-by-the-drought-and-migration-is-intensifying/articleshow/51979749.cms">Karnataka</a>, the study by Assocham said. 
 
The impact of this drought is likely to stay for at least six more months, given the time it takes for <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/NREGS-to-benefit-drought-hit-states/articleshow/51940698.cms">resources </a>and time to revive the activities on ground, despite the fact that monsoon this year is predicted to be normal. 
 
"Let us assume, the government will spend just Rs 3,000 per person to cover <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/The-Drought-Series-Maharashtra-livid-over-shortage-of-water-trains/articleshow/52022249.cms">water</a>, food, health for these people for one or two month. With the population of 33 crore at risk, the estimated cost to economy will be about Rs 1,00,000 crore per month," the study said. 
 
The impact is likely to be multiplied by the loss of subsidies on power, fertiliser and other inputs. 
 
<a href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/3979174/images/o-INDIA-DROUGHT-facebook.jpg">Image source</a>

This year’s severe drought cost the Indian economy at least Rs 6,50,000 cr

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/51979805.cms" />India is reeling under severe drought conditions and heat wave, breaking past records. Maharashtra, Telangana are among 10 states that are reeling under severe humanitarian crisis due to water scarcity. 
 
Another such state is Karnataka, which is going through worst drought in 10 years. Around 3.1 crore people and 22759 villages are drought struck, leading to a massive exodus of people. Although an exodus during summers is a common phenomenon in Karnataka, this time the figures have intensified and are alarming at around 3-4 lakh, including Hyderabad. 
 
READ ALSO: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/The-Drought-Series-Telangana-is-facing-its-3rd-consecutive-drought-coupled-with-a-heatwave/articleshow/51931861.cms">The Drought Series: Telangana is facing its 3rd consecutive drought coupled with a heatwave</a> 
 
People in Karnataka are digging up wells, areas near rivers in search of water. Such is the situation that they are even exploiting water for the cattle. 
 
In Bengaluru, wells have been dug as deep as 1,200 ft and there has been a six-fold dip in water table in urban areas and three-fold fall in rural Karnataka since 2005. 
 
READ ALSO: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/The-Drought-Series-Maharashtras-drought-explained/articleshow/51927097.cms">The Drought Series: Maharashtra’s drought explained</a> 
 
Areas such as Mysuru, Chitradurga, Tumakuru, Kalaburagi, Karwar, etc are staring at worst days to come since beside the rapid depletion of ground water, whatever water is left is also contaminated. 
 
The state government has stepped up efforts in this regard and is sending water tankers, however, there are still many villages who are yet to receive the aid. 
 
Even the Centre has approved Rs 723 crore for Karnataka, against the demand of Rs.1,417 crore for damage to the rabi or winter crop due to widespread drought. 
 
The repeat woes of Karnataka are resonating with the other states too. 
 
Here’s an overview: 
 
 
(Images: Indiatimes)

The Drought Series: Nearly 3.1 crore people in Karnataka are hit by the drought and migration is intensifying

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/51966244.cms" /> To cope up the <keyword id="46472" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="drought">drought</keyword> situation slowly gripping the country, Indian Railway has decided to set up automatic coach washing plants at 10 major depots to <keyword id="6355582" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="save-water">save water</keyword> required for cleaning trains. 
ACWP will be equipped with an effluent treatment system and water softening plant for recycling water used for cleaning trains and platforms. There are 23 railway depots out of which we will set up modern washing plants with added facilities for treatment of water for reuse at 10 at an estimated cost of Rs 20 crore, said a senior Railway Ministry official involved in execution of green initiatives of the national transporter. 
 
According to the official, the National Green Tribunal has taken note of excessive extraction of ground water by railways for cleaning coaches and platforms. About 12,000 litres to 14,000 litres of water is being used for cleaning one rake consisting of 22-24 coaches. 
 
Automatic washing plant is eco-friendly and uses minimum quantity of water, soap and disinfectants. Further, water used for washing can be treated at the ETP plant and recycled. The automatic plant will require only 6000 litres to clean a rake out of which 4000 litres will be recycled water. 
 
As per the calculation, one depot will save 1,24,000 litres of water per day and 453 lakh litres per year once the plant is operational. The cumulative saving of fresh water will be to the extent of 450 million litres per annum for 10 depots, the official said. Besides, railways has also undertaken a massive exercise of reviving and conserving water bodies on rail land across the country. 
 
An action plan is being prepared to take stock of the condition of all such water bodies, he said, adding instructions have been issued to protect, preserve and rejuvenate them on a priority basis. 
 
Indian Railway has thousands of water bodies along its 65,000 km-long tracks and on land owned by the public sector behemoth. Coming to the rescue of people in the parched areas of Maharashtra and Rajasthan, the railways has sent train loads of water to provide succour to them. 
 (Image credits: indiatimes)

Indian Railways comes up with a noble solution to save water

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/51597372.cms" /> 
An extended period of insufficient rains has led to an alarming water situation in many parts of the country. Two consecutive monsoon failures could also be a reason why the water situation has gone this disturbing. This has also forced the state governments to take some strict and required actions to tackle the alarming situation of water crisis. 
 
The delayed rains have already hurt hydropower generation, which would result in the delay of planting pulses, cotton, paddy and millets in western and southern states. In these states, water level has fallen drastically, a situation better in northern India where some reservoirs are still in a better position. 
 
"The situation is alarming as of now. We will soon be sending advisories to state governments for judicious use of water from reservoirs. Better planning can rescue states in the next few months if rains are delayed or not widespread," GS Jha, chairman of Central Water Commission told ET. CWC is the authority responsible for monitoring the country's water situation by keeping a watch on 91 major reservoirs that feed hydropower plants and irrigate fields. It also advises the central and state governments on how they should use water for drinking, irrigation and industrial use. 
 
While rainfall received in January and February was lowest in five years, March received 13% above average rainfall, but even then, it had been insufficient to make a difference to the reservoirs. 
 
As of March 23, these 91 major reservoirs held 41.643 billion cubic metres (bcm) of water, which is 31% less than 60.015 bcm at this time in 2015, as per data from CWC. 
 
<a href="https://irawaterpurifiers.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/drought.jpg">Image source</a>

It took several dried up reservoirs to make us notice the water crisis

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/47512776.cms" />India cut this year's forecast for <keyword id="6358301" type="COMPANY" weightage="80" keywordseo="Monsoon">monsoon</keyword> <keyword id="13672" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="80" keywordseo="Rains">rains</keyword> to 88 percent of the long-term average, Earth Sciences Minister <keyword id="196226" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="Harsh-Vardhan">Harsh Vardhan</keyword> said on Tuesday, raising fears of a drought in the country where nearly half of farmland lacks irrigation facilities. 
	<o:p></o:p>

	India in April had forecast monsoon rains at 93 percent of the average. Rainfall of less than 90 percent is considered to be a drought year. The latest prediction, however, has an error margin of 4 percentage points either way.<o:p></o:p>

	"Let's pray to God that the revised forecast does not come true," Vardhan said.<o:p></o:p>

	The government expressed concerns about a below-par monsoon after the central bank, taking advantage of subdued <keyword id="22195" type="COMPANY" weightage="80" keywordseo="Inflation">inflation</keyword>, cut <keyword id="6371181" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="80" keywordseo="interest-rates">interest rates</keyword> for a third time this year on Tuesday.<o:p></o:p>

	"Prices of essential commodities have already started rising and they will rise further if the monsoon remains deficient as forecast by the government," said Harish Galipelli, head of commodities and currencies at Inditrade Derivatives and Commodities.<o:p></o:p>

	"It's not good news for the farming community that is under distress. Last year their harvest was affected by poor rainfall and unseasonal rains. This year's drought will deepen their problems."<o:p></o:p>

	Anger is growing in the countryside after unseasonal rain and hailstorms ravaged farms earlier this year, pushing many debt-laden farmers to suicide. 
	 
	(Image Courtesy: Livemint.com)<o:p></o:p>

This could mean drought for India. It cuts forecast of monsoon rains to 88% down from 93% earlier

Tools and fire were probably just extremely fortunate means to an end for ancient humans. But as hammerstones evolved to AIs and bullet trains, we were somehow left cleaning up our mess from even the "pristine" expanses of space and the deep ocean. But as our influence gradually leeches over more and more of the planet, the list of things left unharmed also continues to shorten every day. In a groundbreaking study, researchers have uncovered an alarming revelation — the deepest evidence of coral bleaching at depths previously deemed "untouchable" by <keyword id="6366055" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-warming" source="Orion">global warming</keyword>! The team found that up to 80% of certain reef areas 90 metres below the <keyword id="12350" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="indian-ocean" source="Orion">Indian Ocean</keyword> were affected, likely due to an unprecedented 30% rise in the region's sea temperatures. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Trouble deepens for marine ecology" comment="subhead" text="Trouble deepens for marine ecology">Trouble deepens for <keyword id="53136" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="marine" source="Orion">marine</keyword> ecology</cmsannotation> In recent years, 75% of the world’s tropical coral reefs have experienced bleaching due to increased heat stress. Scientists estimate that 70–90% of the reefs will be lost with a 1.5 °C global warming while almost all of them would be bleached out if the temperatures increase beyond 2 °C. But most of these impacts have always been thought to be restricted to shallower regions. The recent study, published in the reputed scientific journal Nature, presents one of the first evidence of coral bleaching in deeper coral reefs. The team attributed this spike in temperatures to the positive state of the Indian Ocean Dipole (<keyword id="1708716" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="iod" source="Orion">IOD</keyword>) in 2019. The IOD refers to a temperature gradient between the eastern and western parts of the Indian Ocean. A positive IOD — often associated with the El Niño phase over the Pacific Ocean — means warmer than normal water in the western parts and it helps enhance the monsoon rainfall across India. Even this year, the same phenomenon has helped offset the impact of the current El Niño phase and prevent a full-blown drought in India. However, the growing intensity and frequency of positive IOD events may have spelt disaster for our deep corals! "There are no two ways about it; this is a huge surprise," remarks Dr Phil Hosegood, the project lead. "Deeper corals had always been thought of as being resilient to ocean warming because the waters they inhabit are cooler than at the surface and were believed to remain relatively stable." Being a reservoir of rich marine biodiversity, they support an estimated 25% of known marine species! Bleaching represents a break in the symbiotic relationship between the corals and the vibrant algae, limiting their ability to support numerous marine species. Therefore, such events can spell doom for the entire marine ecosystem of the region. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Unprecedented ocean warming to blame" comment="subhead" text="Unprecedented ocean warming to blame">Unprecedented ocean warming to blame</cmsannotation> The first evidence of coral damage was observed during a research cruise in November 2019 when remotely operated underwater vehicles equipped with cameras transmitted live images of the bleached corals. Ironically enough, no observable harm was evident in the region's shallow water reefs. Subsequent analysis revealed that a deepening thermocline, driven by a positive IOD (regional equivalent of El Niño), caused the bleaching in deeper reefs. In simpler words, while the temperature at the ocean's surface stalled, mercury levels beneath the surface sneakily jumped seven massive notches from 22-29°C — too much for most organisms to adapt to in such a short span of time. Scientists have always expected such deep water corals — spanning depths between 30-150 metres under the surface — to pick up the ecological slack as shallower reefs die out. But this new finding shows they might be just as vulnerable to bleaching. The fact that they remain so painfully understudied, mainly due to the complexity of deep ocean exploration, only adds to the worrisome uncertainty. Fortunately, however, the team also noticed that many large swaths of the reef managed to recover when they went back for expeditions in 2020 and 2022. However, this does mean we're out of hot water yet, the authors warned. With the oceans warmer than they’ve ever been, another ongoing positive IOD phase and a “super strong” El Niño on the cards, conditions could worsen for the Indian Ocean reefs once again. "While there is no way we can stop the thermocline from deepening, what we can do is expand our understanding of the impacts that these changes will have throughout these environments of which we have so little knowledge. In the face of fast-paced global change, that has never been more urgent," explains Dr Hosegood. The findings of this research have been published in Nature Communications and can be accessed <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42279-2" data-type="tilCustomLink">here</a>.

“Untouchable” coral reefs in the deep Indian Ocean waters faced bleaching after 2019 warming, study finds

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Extreme weather events increase <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/call-for-data-on-gender-based-violence-to-be-key-to-state-strategy-10932938">gender-based violence</a> during and after disasters, a new analysis found.</li><li>Scientists say <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-change-alter-human-life-un-ipcc-report-2022-2">climate change</a> is causing more severe weather events.</li></ul>Across the world, the climate crisis has fueled more severe and frequent storms, heatwaves, droughts, and other dangers. A new study shines a light on how a warming world amplifies <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gender-parity-requires-prioritizing-political-and-economic-empowerment-2022-5">existing gender inequalities.</a>The visible toll of weather disasters, such as torn-down buildings and buckled roads, "can overshadow more veiled consequences, including <keyword id="12021081" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gender" source="Orion">gender</keyword>-based violence experienced by women, girls, and sexual and gender minorities," Kim Van Daalen, a global public health expert at the University of Cambridge and lead author of a new analysis, told Insider. In the analysis, published Monday in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00088-2/fulltext">The Lancet Planetary Health</a>, researchers looked at 41 existing peer-reviewed studies and found that gender-based violence — such as sexual assault, intimate partner violence, or trafficking, both during and after disasters — appears to be a recurring theme. A growing body of research has found that climate change is causing <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photo-video-europe-china-flooding-oregon-siberia-canada-wildfires-2021-7">extreme weather events</a>, including tropical storms, droughts, wildfires, and floods, to become severe and more likely to occur. In the past two decades, the frequency of floods has increased by 134%, storms by 40%, and droughts by 29%, according to the research team."When we explore the overall impacts of climate change, we see that all genders experience climate change differently," Van Daalen told Insider. "As a result of gendered social roles and responsibilities, we tend to see that globally women and girls disproportionately suffer from increased climate change risks compared to men and boys." For instance, Van Daalen said the literature suggested women were less likely to be able to adapt after a natural disaster due to financial insecurity and little institutional support.While researchers were not entirely surprised by the uptick in gender-based violence during and after extreme weather events, something they found interesting was that gender-based violence seemed to be a shared experience across the contexts they studied — from <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-katrina-10-years-later-2015-8">Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans</a> to <a href="https://www.businessinsiderbd.com/national/news/22905/floods-in-5-districts-batter-over-4-lakh-people-report">floods in Bangladesh</a> to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/droughts-bad-for-us-catastrophic-for-india-2012-8">droughts in India.</a><div type="image" title="A woman hangs clothes to dry in front of her house in a flooded area due to recent monsoon rainfalls in Dhamrai on August 11, 2020." height="3279" width="4373" msid="92191684" hostid="261"></div>Extreme events may influence particular gender-based violence risks for individuals with diverse sexual and gender identities, according to researchers. "Due to their frequent marginalization, sexual and gender minorities are often more severely impacted by disasters," Van Daalen said, pointing to media reports at the time of Hurricane Katrina of a handful of religious figures blaming the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/nov/19/northernireland.hurricanes2005">New Orleans gay community</a> for the storm. Van Daalen added that the team's research found a lack of documented evidence specific to sexual and gender minorities: "Future research should consider how this vulnerable population is disproportionately impacted as well."Researchers hope the results from their analysis can be used to devise proper interventions before, during, and after disasters; some examples include providing post-disaster shelters and relief services — with their own toilets and bath areas — designed to be exclusively accessed by women, girls, and sexual or <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/words-on-race-gender-and-diversity-you-should-know-2020-7">gender minorities</a> or providing emergency response teams with training to prevent gender-based violence."By understanding the mechanisms through which extreme events may influence or affect gender-based violence, we can better inform the design and implementation of climate-resilient, context-specific, and sexual- and gender-responsive interventions that serve the needs of women, girls, and sexual and gender minorities globally," Van Daalen said. "Importantly, these interventions should be informed and, where possible, co-created by the affected communities."

Across the world, extreme weather events are fueling gender-based violence during and after disasters

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/47012419.cms" />In its first forecast for 2015, the <keyword id="55209" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Indian-Meteorological-Department">Indian Meteorological Department</keyword> has predicted a below normal <keyword id="6358301" type="COMPANY" weightage="80" keywordseo="Monsoon">monsoon</keyword> for the country. The forecaster, however, did not predict an overall dry spell like in June, 2009 when the rainy season turned out to be the driest in nearly four decades. 
 
"Not looking at over spread of drought in India, " an IMD official said. 
 Bangladesh and its South Asian neighbours are also expected to see below average rainfall in 2015 due to the impact of an <keyword id="51549" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="El-Nino">El Nino</keyword> weather pattern, which can bring on a dry spell in the region, <keyword id="821951" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="80" keywordseo="a-weather">a weather</keyword> expert said on Wednesday. 
 "The entire region is prone to below average rainfall this year except <keyword id="6355572" type="COUNTRY" weightage="80" keywordseo="Sri-Lanka">Sri Lanka</keyword> and Maldives," OP Sreejith told Reuters, after releasing the consensus forecast of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, a group of global weather experts affiliated to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). 
 
Global models show an El Nino condition has been established in the Pacific Ocean but there is uncertainty about its intensity, Sreejith said. 
 "There is consensus about the potential for adverse impacts of El Nino on the region's monsoon rainfall," said Sreejith, a <keyword id="196468" type="POSITION" weightage="80" keywordseo="meteorologist">meteorologist</keyword> with the Indian weather office. 
 
El Nino, or a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, can prompt dry spells in Southeast Asia and Australia and heavy rains in South America, curbing food crop output. 
 
In India, a strong El Nino could result in droughts during the monsoon season and hit crops from rice to sugar and cotton in the country which is one of the world's leading producers of these farm commodities. 
India's monsoon was hit by an El Nino in 2009 when the four-month long rainy season that starts in June turned out to be the driest in nearly four decades. 
 
Last week, the Australian weather office evaluated at least a 70 percent chance of an El Nino weather pattern emerging as early as June.

And now for some bad news. There might not be
enough rain this year

<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/51421887.cms" />The lecture on ‘India in the <keyword id="47890" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-economy">global economy</keyword>’ delivered by <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=raghuram+rajan">Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan</a>, at the first <keyword id="3286279" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ramnath-Goenka-Lecture">Ramnath Goenka Lecture</keyword>, invoked optimism and caution. 
 
While Rajan endorsed the government’s fiscal management, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=monetary+policy">monetary policy</a> reforms and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=rural+job+creation">rural job creation</a> efforts, he reiterated the need for differentiating between dealing with genuine risk-taking and deliberate wrongdoing while chasing mortgage defaulters, who have collectively dragged the banking system to a whirlpool. And moving out of this whirlpool has become the biggest challenge for the banks now and perhaps even for the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=economy">economy</a>. 
 
Rajan stressed on <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=rbi">RBI’s</a> aim to have clean bank balance sheets by March 2017 so that banks have the room to lend again. 
 
“The problem in the past was that banks did not have enough powers to force promoters to pay or to put stressed assets back on track… We aim to have fully provisioned bank balance sheets within a year,” he said. 
 
Trying to answer the disturbing question of why the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=global+economy">global economy</a> has been finding it hard to restore pre-Great Recession growth rates, Rajan said the financial boom preceding the Great Recession left industrial countries with an overhang of debt. 
 
“Debt, whether on governments, households or banks, holds back growth,” he said. 
 
While the remedy may be to write down debt so as to revive demand from the indebted, it is debatable whether additional debt fuelled demand is sustainable. “Also, large-scale debt write-offs seem politically difficult even if they are economically warranted,” he warned. 
 
According to Rajan, aggressive monetary policy moves by industrial countries have been putting a lot of pressure on emerging markets like India. “We are faced with surges of capital inflows one day when investors go into ‘risk-on’ mode only to see outflows the next as they switch risk off,” he rued. 
 For the first time in decades, <keyword id="176734" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-trade">global trade</keyword> has consistently grown more slowly than global output. “As countries get richer, non-traded services constitute a greater fraction of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=gdp">GDP</a>, causing <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> to grow faster than trade. Also, as industrial countries become more competitive, and as China moves up the value chain, more of the inputs going into final products are being sourced from inside a country rather than from outside the country, pulling down the global supply chain,” he elaborated. 
 
This results in slower growth especially for countries like India. “If all countries are experiencing slower trade, the remedies may be beyond the control of the Indian government. While we can examine possible dumping in certain industries, we have to be careful that any remedies that increase prices in the protected industry do not render other domestic industries uncompetitive,” Rajan cautioned. 
 
Though Indian trade has been slowing, the slowdown is similar to what has been happening elsewhere, with a significant portion due to a fall in commodity prices, and a smaller share due to a fall in trade volumes. “While goods exports may have suffered a little more over the last year, it is too early to discern a clear pattern,” he asserted. 
 
Rajan is not unduly worried about the growing debate over rupee’s depreciation against the dollar. “Indian currency has been relatively stable in comparison to peers across the globe,” he said. 
 
Rajan believes that three things can further help ensure that the movement of the rupee versus other currencies is orderly. “First, good policies that ensure macroeconomic stability and convinces investors their money is safe over the medium term. Second, we should focus on attracting stable capital flows that will stay for the long run. Finally, the government has been encouraging foreign investors to ‘Make in India’. One offshoot of this campaign has been a sizeable rise in foreign direct investment, the most stable sort of investment. With two months left in the year to go, net FDI is already at the second highest level ever, and comfortable higher than the current account deficit.” 
 
Rajan does not subscribe to the idea that exchange rate is a helpful tool in the country’s quest to enhance what is produced in India. “Instead, to export more, the country should improve productivity by building out infrastructure; improve human capital with better schools, colleges, vocational and on-the-job training; simplify business regulation and taxation; and, improve access to finance,” the RBI chief said. 
 Rajan said at a time of increasing uncertainty over the strength of the economic stability and progress globally, the country’s approach to stick to the path of macroeconomic stability has made a clear difference. “Given the inhospitable world <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword> and two successive droughts in India, either of which would have thrown the economy into a tailspin in the past, our focus on macroeconomic stabilisation must be part of the explanation why we have over 7 per cent growth, low <keyword id="22195" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Inflation">inflation</keyword>, and a low current account deficit unlike some of our emerging market counterparts,” he said. 
 
(Image: Indiatimes)

You Searched For "drought in india" and got 13 results

Scientists are now studying why India saw a five decade long decline in rainfall until 2000

IANS

Bone dry or deluge — the freakish monsoon is killing Indians either way

Preeti Soni

India’s deadly drought: Villagers in Mokhada battle sleepless nights, snakes in search of water

SCMP

Five years on, India may not even get a chance to solve its on-going water crisis risking hundreds of millions of lives

Preeti Soni

This year’s severe drought cost the Indian economy at least Rs 6,50,000 cr

BI India Bureau

The Drought Series: Nearly 3.1 crore people in Karnataka are hit by the drought and migration is intensifying

Akanksha Jain

Indian Railways comes up with a noble solution to save water

BI India Bureau

It took several dried up reservoirs to make us notice the water crisis

BI India Bureau

This could mean drought for India. It cuts forecast of monsoon rains to 88% down from 93% earlier

BI India Bureau

“Untouchable” coral reefs in the deep Indian Ocean waters faced bleaching after 2019 warming, study finds

Ankush Banerjee

Across the world, extreme weather events are fueling gender-based violence during and after disasters

Paola Rosa-Aquino

And now for some bad news. There might not be enough rain this year

BI India Bureau

Why RBI chief thinks macroeconomic stability is the key to enhance growth

Preetam Kaushik