Here's why it's going to get even harder to buy a house in Britain
REUTERS/Eric Gaillard
The record low number of properties for sale has coincided with rising demand, according to a note from Barclays. This will potentially double the rate at which prices rise in the next six months.
Here are the main points:
- Surveyors are reporting less stock. According to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, 22% more of its surveyors saw supply to the market fall in July.
- Buyer enquiries are rising. This supply shortage comes at a time when buyer enquiries have risen for the fourth consecutive month, with 25% of respondents reporting an increase in demand.
- House price inflation has been around 4% in the past six months, which implies that prices could rise by up to 9% in the next six months, an acceleration of the current rate of inflation.
The data and potential house price jump is reflected in the RICS survey, which canvasses opinion on where house prices are going in the next six months.
Here's the chart from Barclays: Barclays
While it might be bad news for first-time buyers, it's great for the house builders. Barclays estimates every 1% increase in house price inflation adds around 1% on to profit margins at building companies.
There is a question of how long something like this can be sustained, especially in London where house prices to earnings are already at their highest level in more than 30 years.
Another nice chart shows this spike:
Barclays
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