Bill Gross tried out for the Duke basketball team, got cut, and now he's knows there are no easy buckets

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Bill Gross' latest investment outlook is out and this one is a lot of fun.

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Gross divulges right at the top that he tried out for Duke's freshman basketball team and got cut.

Gross then attended a basketball camp for adults and missed a wide open layup, leading gross to the realization that:

If there ever was an economic concept that currently is not a layup, it would be what the future average level of Fed Funds will be. No one really knows and unlike the gimme layup that Coach K provided for me, there are no "gimmes" when it comes to scoring a Fed Funds basket.

The relevant investment theme that Gross addresses in the outlook are not really anything new for the former "Bond King."

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Gross talks a lot about the "new neutral," which is his idea that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time due to the over-indebted and over-leveraged global financial system.

This is not new for Gross.

As for how to deal with this environment, Gross says there are four main approaches:

  • The Ray Dalio approach theme hat if borrowing costs center around 0% real, then assets can be cautiously levered, being cognizant at the same time of the fat tails inherent in our new world of leverage and extreme monetary policy.
  • The Jeremy Grantham approach of waiting it out in low returning cash under the assumption of a 7 year reversion to the mean, instead of a 20 year cycle hinted at by Rogoff and others.
  • The Warren Buffett approach that has a near perpetual closed-end fund purchasing stocks when fundamentally cheap.
  • And the Jack Bogle method of indexing at a low cost.

Gross sees himself modeling the Bridgewater method, and you can read all of Gross' latest outlook here »