Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 100-Day Hits And Misses

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When Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi told his counterpart Sushma Swaraj that PM Narendra Modi had injected "a new vitality into an ancient civilization'', he might have been speaking for India's entire neighbourhood.
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While Modi internally had issues to contend with, not least the criticism over the WTO muddle, he took no time in coming into his own on India's foreign policy, something he followed closely even as Gujarat CM. While the government's erratic handling of Pakistan was called into question, Modi's larger South Asia outreach in the form of invites to all SAARC leaders for his swearing in, followed by a wildly successful visit to Nepal - a country no Indian PM had visited for 17 years for a bilateral meet, reinforced the primacy of neighbours in India's foreign policy like never before in decades, at least not since the days of Gujral Doctrine.

The results are already showing. A deeply divided country which has struggled to frame a Constitution for years, complaining bitterly in the process about alleged Indian interference, Nepal unanimously endorsed Modi's visit which saw Indian announcing an additional $ 1 billion concessional credit line. Sri Lanka has freed all Indian fishermen from its jails. It is also of significance to the ministry of external affairs (MEA) that almost all SAARC leaders have reassured the government they won't allow their territory to be used against India.

Like in the case of his predecessor, Modi too was seen as driving foreign policy. The ministry of external affairs (MEA) was not complaining though as the world seemed captivated by the new PM. Rarely, if ever, has it happened that senior emissaries from all P5 countries have visited India within first 3 months of a new government taking over. That India was the chief saboteur of the WTO trade facilitation deal - in the negotiations for which MEA was not involved - took some sheen off the new government but the interest in India under Modi is not waning just yet.

Even before he formally took over as PM, Modi made the point that India's relations with the US were too important to be led by personal whims. That he meant it became obvious when he quickly accepted President Obama's invite for a bilateral meet, saving both State Department and MEA the blushes.

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While MEA may or may not have seen any cultural change under Modi's leadership, it certainly witnessed some out-of-box thinking. As expected, the ministry under Modi was forced to think of ways to forward India's economic agenda. The decision to make states stake holders in India's economic diplomacy emerged from Modi's desire that foreign policy act as a springboard for economic success. This `state focus' was first put to use with Singapore in August with as many as 4 chief ministers visiting the country, soon after a visit by foreign minister Sushma Swaraj, to explore possibilities for more investments in the infrastructure sector.

MEA's 100-day report card though is not devoid of blemishes. Modi showed understanding of the geopolitical realities in his handling of Japan and China (his real test will come in September when he meets Shinzo Abe and Xi Jinping in a short space of time), but his handling of Pakistan was mercurial. He surprised Pakistan by inviting Nawaz Sharif for his oath taking, indulged in saree and letter diplomacy with him after a spunky Sharif accepted the invite, leading to announcement of foreign secretary-level talks, and then snubbed him by calling off talks over what Islamabad thought was a routine meeting with Hurriyat. All within 3 months of becoming prime minister.

The risk now is that Modi, by not including ceasefire violations as one of the reasons for cancelling the scheduled talks, may have painted himself so much into a corner that any dialogue resumption exercise in the near future could turn into a zero sum game for the 2 countries. One of the parties may have to concede ground publicly for any such initiative to be successful.

It must be added here though if the current turmoil in Pakistan does end up unsettling Sharif, Modi will be the only man laughing up his sleeve in the end.

MEA's neighbourhood outreach under Modi will also have no meaning if it doesn't move fast to implement the vision outlined by the PM. The fact that the government has shown no interest in ratification of the land boundary agreement or the Teesta water sharing arrangement doesn't bode well for relations with Bangladesh, a country crucial for India's own security.

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100-day hits

The neighbourhood outreach lapped up by most countries

Focus on economic diplomacy with involvement of states

Rescue of Indian nurses from IS in Iraq and evacuation of over 10,000 Indians from conflict areas in Ukraine, Iraq and Libya

Japan and China reaching out to India with Modi sending right messages to both countries

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MEA deciding to now 'Act East' with foreign minister Sushma Swaraj visiting 3 Asean countries in the first 3 months

100-day misses

Pakistan remains a holdout nation among India's neighbours despite a promising start by Modi

No forward movement on land boundary agreement with Dhaka

Over 40 Indian workers kidnapped in Iraq yet to be rescued despite hectic diplomacy