So far, the 2016 election is looking a lot like the one that came before it ...
Mike Nudelman/Business Insider
But for all the fuss over the national polls, the only outcome that will matter on election night is how many states Trump can convert from blue to red on the 2012 electoral map between President Barack Obama and then-GOP nominee Mitt Romney.
And, based on recent polling and projections, 2016 is shaping up to be very much like 2012.
Of 23 states with recent polling available on RealClearPolitics, 22 align with the same party in 2016 as in 2012. The only one that is not, Virginia, is a statistical tie in the latest poll.
And the percentages by which Clinton and Trump are leading in these states is, in many cases, nearly identical to the difference by which Obama and Romney won them by in 2012.
In 2012, the key swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania went to Obama by a difference of 1, 2, and 5 points, respectively. Clinton is leading in the RealClearPolitics average in those states by a near-identical 2, 1.4, and 5.3 points.
"Every place we've polled in the last month we've found the Clinton/Trump race within a few points of where the Obama/Romney race ended up," wrote Tom Jensen, the director of the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling.
He added: "There was so much talk earlier this year of Clinton winning some sort of historical landslide that expectations got out of whack and now fuel perceptions that she's doing really poorly, but the bottom line is she's pretty much where Obama was in an election that while relatively close in the popular vote ended up as an electoral college landslide."
The map below compares the differences in the Democratic share of the vote in 2012 and in 2016:
Andy Kiersz/Business Insider
Although still months out from an election that has proven volatile, those numbers make it look increasingly difficult for Trump to overcome the Obama-Romney map of 2012, when Obama won with 332 votes in the Electoral College.
In April, Morning Consult published their own projection of what a Clinton-Trump matchup would look like in the fall. The outlet found a strikingly similar result - the only state that flipped from blue to red compared to 2012 was Maine and its four electoral votes:
Morning Consult
- Colon cancer rates are rising in young people. If you have two symptoms you should get a colonoscopy, a GI oncologist says.
- I spent $2,000 for 7 nights in a 179-square-foot room on one of the world's largest cruise ships. Take a look inside my cabin.
- An Ambani disruption in OTT: At just ₹1 per day, you can now enjoy ad-free content on JioCinema
- SC rejects pleas seeking cross-verification of votes cast using EVMs with VVPAT
- Ultraviolette F77 Mach 2 electric sports bike launched in India starting at ₹2.99 lakh
- Deloitte projects India's FY25 GDP growth at 6.6%
- Italian PM Meloni invites PM Modi to G7 Summit Outreach Session in June
- Markets rally for 6th day running on firm Asian peers; Tech Mahindra jumps over 12%
- JNK India IPO allotment date
- JioCinema New Plans
- Realme Narzo 70 Launched
- Apple Let Loose event
- Elon Musk Apology
- RIL cash flows
- Charlie Munger
- Feedbank IPO allotment
- Tata IPO allotment
- Most generous retirement plans
- Broadcom lays off
- Cibil Score vs Cibil Report
- Birla and Bajaj in top Richest
- Nestle Sept 2023 report
- India Equity Market