BREXIT POLLS: The huge swing for Leave doesn't signal a guaranteed Brexit
Brittany Randolph / flickr
The release of a poll on Monday night showed another substantial lead for the Leave campaign. The online and telephone poll, conducted by ICM on behalf of the Guardian has the split at 53% for Leave, 47% for Remain.
But, Jacob Nell and his team at Morgan Stanley point out that the the "poor recent track record of polls and political betting markets" as well as the lack of a historical precedent means that it's not all over for the "Remain" camp yet.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley say: "The UK's referendum on EU membership looks set to be a close call. Our tracker, which weights internet polls, telephone polls and the betting markets equally, currently points to a 33% probability of a vote to Leave."
"We put the probability slightly lower at 30% - reflecting the well established pattern of a late swing to the status quo - but we would still characterise the outcome as close and uncertain.We think the outcome will mark a fork in the road, with recovery, reflation and rising rates in the UK in 'Remain,' and protracted uncertainty in 'Leave' for both the UK and Europe."
- Singapore Airlines was ordered to pay a couple compensation for 'mental agony' after they complained their business-class seats didn't automatically recline
- Welcome to the white-collar recession
- A software engineer shares the résumé he's used since college that got him a $500,000 job at Meta — plus offers at TikTok and LinkedIn
- Markets trade firm in early trade as GST revenues hit record in April
- Blockchain in Supply Chain Management
- Rupee turns flat at 83.43 against US dollar in early trade
- LS polls: EC increases polling time in Telangana in view of heat wave
- US Fed says further interest rate hike unlikely going ahead
- Nothing Phone (2a) blue edition launched
- JNK India IPO allotment date
- JioCinema New Plans
- Realme Narzo 70 Launched
- Apple Let Loose event
- Elon Musk Apology
- RIL cash flows
- Charlie Munger
- Feedbank IPO allotment
- Tata IPO allotment
- Most generous retirement plans
- Broadcom lays off
- Cibil Score vs Cibil Report
- Birla and Bajaj in top Richest
- Nestle Sept 2023 report
- India Equity Market