GOLDMAN SACHS: These 16 stocks will get crushed on a sharp market pullback. Here's a dirt-cheap way to profit from their demise.

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GOLDMAN SACHS: These 16 stocks will get crushed on a sharp market pullback. Here's a dirt-cheap way to profit from their demise.

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Reuters / Shannon Stapleton

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  • As investor nerves fray at the edges, Goldman Sachs has seen a sudden uptick in client requests for downside protection.
  • The firm has identified 16 vulnerable stocks that have low free cash flow, and whose hedges looks cheap relative to the broader market.
  • This stock-identification strategy can also be used to make directional bearish bets that would profit from large share-price losses.
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Clients of Goldman Sachs are spooked.

So says the firm's derivatives team, which says its seen a "sharp increase" in requests for attractively priced hedging ideas in recent weeks.

The obvious catalyst for this sudden concern is the US-China trade war, which has kicked into high gear in recent weeks. But Goldman says client concerns stretch well beyond that. And for that reason, it's be on the hunt for attractively priced downside protection.

"Broadly, our studies show that puts on stocks with low free cash flow are systematically undervalued," John Marshall, a derivatives strategist at Goldman, wrote in a recent client note.

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But finding such market dislocations is easier said than done, which is why Goldman has created a rigid methodology to aid in its pursuit.

Read more: 'The disruptors will be disrupted': The man who runs the $100 billion SoftBank Vision Fund offers bold predictions for how different the world will look in 10 years

It ultimately amounts to a two-part strategy:

  1. Identifying stocks with low free-cash-flow yield - "We show that low FCF yield stocks have less downside support than high FCF stocks, yet put prices systematically underprice the downside risk," Marshall said.
  2. Identifying stocks with downside potential - "We focus on stocks where our analysts see downside potential to their price target and rate the stocks Sell or Neutral."

Of course, one trader's hedge can another trader's bearish directional wager. In other words, it's also possible to use this strategy to profit from the assumed underlying stock decline - and do so at dirt-cheap prices. It's really up to an investor which approach they prefer.

With that established, let's get on to the list. Below are the 16 stocks identified by Goldman as best fitting the criteria listed above.

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They're listed in decreasing order of upside to price target. Each entry also provides the cost of 5% out-of-the-market put contracts - or bets a stock will fall.

Get the latest Goldman Sachs stock price here.

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16. Sanderson Farms

16. Sanderson Farms

Ticker: SAFM

Market cap: $3 billion

Stock rating: Neutral

Upside to price target: -13%

5% OTM option price: 4.3%

Source: Goldman Sachs

15. WEC Energy Group

15. WEC Energy Group

Ticker: WEC

Market cap: $25 billion

Stock rating: Sell

Upside to price target: -14%

5% OTM option price: 1.4%

Source: Goldman Sachs

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14. MACOM Technology

14. MACOM Technology

Ticker: MTSI

Market cap: $955 million

Stock rating: Sell

Upside to price target: -14%

5% OTM option price: 9.9%

Source: Goldman Sachs

13. Public Storage

13. Public Storage

Ticker: PSA

Market cap: $40 billion

Stock rating: Sell

Upside to price target: -14%

5% OTM option price: 1.8%

Source: Goldman Sachs

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12. Southern Co.

12. Southern Co.

Ticker: SO

Market cap: $56 billion

Stock rating: Sell

Upside to price target: -15%

5% OTM option price: 1.6%

Source: Goldman Sachs

11. American Water Works

11. American Water Works

Ticker: AWK

Market cap: $20 billion

Stock rating: Neutral

Upside to price target: -15%

5% OTM option price: 1.4%

Source: Goldman Sachs

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10. Realty Income Corp.

10. Realty Income Corp.

Ticker: O

Market cap: $22 billion

Stock rating: Sell

Upside to price target: -17%

5% OTM option price: 1.9%

Source: Goldman Sachs

9. Equity Residential

9. Equity Residential

Ticker: EQR

Market cap: $28 billion

Stock rating: Sell

Upside to price target: -17%

5% OTM option price: 1.7%

Source: Goldman Sachs

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8. Navistar International

8. Navistar International

Ticker: NAV

Market cap: $3 billion

Stock rating: Sell

Upside to price target: -17%

5% OTM option price: 6.8%

Source: Goldman Sachs

7. Veeco Instruments

7. Veeco Instruments

Ticker: VECO

Market cap: $641 million

Stock rating: Neutral

Upside to price target: -17%

5% OTM option price: 7.3%

Source: Goldman Sachs

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6. American Tower

6. American Tower

Ticker: AMT

Market cap: $87 billion

Stock rating: Neutral

Upside to price target: -18%

5% OTM option price: 2.0%

Source: Goldman Sachs

5. Tanger Factory Outlet

5. Tanger Factory Outlet

Ticker: SKT

Market cap: $2 billion

Stock rating: Sell

Upside to price target: -19%

5% OTM option price: 3.9%

Source: Goldman Sachs

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4. Unum Group

4. Unum Group

Ticker: UNM

Market cap: $7 billion

Stock rating: Sell

Upside to price target: -22%

5% OTM option price: 4.3%

Source: Goldman Sachs

3. SunPower

3. SunPower

Ticker: SPWR

Market cap: $1 billion

Stock rating: Neutral

Upside to price target: -25%

5% OTM option price: 8.1%

Source: Goldman Sachs

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2. Wix.com

2. Wix.com

Ticker: WIX

Market cap: $6 billion

Stock rating: Neutral

Upside to price target: -26%

5% OTM option price: 6.8%

Source: Goldman Sachs

1. Ventas

1. Ventas

Ticker: VTR

Market cap: $23 billion

Stock rating: Sell

Upside to price target: -29%

5% OTM option price: 2.3%

Source: Goldman Sachs

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