MORGAN STANLEY: We're slashing our oil price forecast by 50%
But the prevailing opinion is now that oil won't be returning to triple digits a barrel anytime soon.
On Monday, Ian Taylor, CEO of Vitol Group and boss of the world's biggest independent oil trader, said the price of oil will stay beneath $60 for as long as 10 years.
Now Morgan Stanley has weighed in, slashing their 2016 oil forecasts from the $55+ per barrel range to less than $30.
It's all about demand. With the OPEC oil producing cartel refusing to cut production, it will take a lot of demand for the commodity to mop up the glut and return prices to normal.
Morgan Stanley analysts don't see any evidence of that happening soon:
We are pushing out our view of the recovery in oil by 6-12 months and cutting our oil forecast from the US$50s to high US$20s over the next year
Here's the chart:
Morgan Stanley
The price of Brent crude, the European benchmark, peaked at about $140 a barrel in 2008 before crashing as low as $45 in early 2009. It then recovered substantially, trading around the $100 mark for nearly three years from 2011 to 2014.
But, right now, Brent and West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, are hovering between $32 and $35 a barrel thanks to oversupply and an attempt by OPEC to knock out the US shale oil industry.
NOW WATCH: Wall Street's unbelievable secret history
- Should you be worried about the potential side-effects of the Covishield vaccine?
- India T20 World Cup squad: KulCha back on menu, KL Rahul dropped
- Sales of homes priced over ₹4 crore rise 10% in Jan-Mar in top 7 cities: CBRE
- Gold prices fluctuate as geopolitical tensions ease; US Fed meeting, payroll data to affect prices this week
- Best beaches to visit in Goa in 2024
- Nothing Phone (2a) blue edition launched
- JNK India IPO allotment date
- JioCinema New Plans
- Realme Narzo 70 Launched
- Apple Let Loose event
- Elon Musk Apology
- RIL cash flows
- Charlie Munger
- Feedbank IPO allotment
- Tata IPO allotment
- Most generous retirement plans
- Broadcom lays off
- Cibil Score vs Cibil Report
- Birla and Bajaj in top Richest
- Nestle Sept 2023 report
- India Equity Market