30 Years Ago, Warren Buffett Gave Away The Secret To Good Investing And Correctly Predicted No One Would Listen
In a speech at Columbia Business School, later adapted into an essay, Buffett introduced what he called, "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville."Buffett writes:
And that's pretty much it. Buffett doesn't think about buying a stock; he thinks about buying a business.
In Buffett's essay, he asks readers to consider a group of investors that outperformed the S&P 500 year-in and year-out."In this group of successful investors that I want to consider," Buffett writes, "there has been a common intellectual patriarch, Ben Graham... They have gone to different places and bought and sold different stocks and companies, yet they have a combined record that simply can't be explained by random chance." Buffett explains that the investors of Graham-and-Doddsville don't care when they buy stocks, or worry about a stock's beta or the "covariance in returns among securities." He says these investors are businessmen buying pieces of businesses, not traders buying stocks.
And the strategy seems to be working out okay: on Thursday, Class A shares of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway eclipsed $200,000 per share for the first time, and $1,000 invested with Buffett in 1984 would've been worth $155,301.
And since 1969, the book value of Berkshire Hathaway - which Buffett acquired in 1964 - has beaten the S&P 500 43 out of 44 years on a five-year rolling basis. Said more simply, the relative value of Berkshire Hathaway shares have been worth more than the S&P 500 collectively every year but one.Not to mention that Buffett's personal wealth is estimated by Forbes to be more than $66 billion.
You can't, of course. But Roche's point isn't that Buffett's ideas about investing aren't sound, just misunderstood.Many think Buffett was a simple "buy-and-hold" stock investor, but his investing is actually about way more than that; or way less, depending on how you look at it.
Isn't he just giving away the secret?"I can only tell you that the secret has been out for 50 years," Buffett writes, "...yet I have seen no trend toward value investing in the 35 years I've practiced it. There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult. The academic world, if anything, has actually backed away from the teaching of value investing over the last 30 years. It's likely to stay that way. Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace, and those who read their Graham & Dodd will continue to prosper."
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