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Britain is highly likely to have a snap general election in 2017

Nov 4, 2016, 13:41 IST

The recording on Theresa May speaking was made in May when she was Home Secretary.REUTERS/Yves Herman

It looks like we're going back to the polling booths.

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Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to call a snap general election next year after the High Court ruled her government could not pursue Brexit talks without consulting parliament.

Senior Conservative figures told The Times newspaper that May would have to call a general election if MPs used their power to interfere with the government's Brexit aims.

Meanwhile, economists at Deutsche Bank told clients to assume elections in 2017 as "a base case" - indicating it is more likely than not to happen.

"In sum, it has weakened PM May's Brexit position further and makes a new general election next year our base case scenario, either before or after the triggering of Article 50," the bank said in the note, reported by Reuters.

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Three of the country's most senior judges, including Lord Chief Justice John Thomas, ruled unanimously on Thursday that May is legally required to pass an act of parliament before initiating Britain's formal withdrawal from the European Union.

The government's legal team argued that May can use royal prerogative to invoke Article 50, an archaic privilege which allows UK government to take an action without first referring to parliament. The government said it would appeal the ruling.

Former Justice Minister Dominic Raab told The Times: "The elephant in the room here is if we get to the stage where [MPs] are not willing to allow this negotiation to even begin. I think there must be an increased chance that we will need to go to the country again."

Former Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith also said May "would have no other option but to go to the country" and bolster her mandate to lead Brexit talks if MPs held up the Article 50 process.

The ruling is a problem for May because, while the British public voted 52% to 48% in favour of Brexit, about 73% of all MPs favour Remain. That majority includes 56% of all Conservative MPs.

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Here is the chart:

Morgan Stanley

Handing more power back to the MPs increases the chance of a softer Brexit, with greater access to the European Single Market and a potentially looser stance on border controls.

Deutsche Bank said MPs will "want to attach conditions to the Government's negotiating stance, such as greater emphasis on Single Market access, as a quid pro quo for support."

But May's government will understand that an election is likely to produce a parliament with more pro-Brexit MPs.

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When the referendum majority is translated into individual majorities at the constituency level, it produces a theoretical 61% parliamentary vote for Leave in the Commons, according to analysis from Nomura.

Here is the chart:

Nomura

With these figures in mind, and with her poll leads over Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, May could well be tempted to send Britons back to vote in their second general election in three years in 2017.

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