CITI ANALYST: We Could See The S&P Surge To 2,400 Within Months
Tom Fitzpatrick and the technical analysis team at Citi see a chance for this rally to keep going, moving "towards at least 2,150-2,250" and "possibly 2,350-2,400 into Q1, 2015."
The team at Citi looked at trading in the S&P 500 earlier this year, and thinks the five months of gains that followed the 6% decline seen January-February could portend a similar rise in the S&P following the 4% "hiccup" in July.
The basic setup, as the Citi team sees it, is that August could be another month like those seen in July 2009, October 2011, and February 2014, where market gains outpace the decline seen during the previous month. This is known as an "outside bullish" month.
If this pattern holds, which Citi says would be the case if the S&P closes over 1,991 on Friday, prior rallies indicate the S&P could be headed to 2,150-2,250.
But Citi sees potential for an even bigger upside move for the S&P 500: 2,400.
If the current bull market holds up like the bull market of the 1990s, which saw a 251% low-to-high rally, a move off the March 2009 lows would be an advance to around 2,340.
And if we get an "outside bullish" month in August, this trend could be extrapolated to a move toward 2,400, Citi says.
Here's what the current trend for the S&P 500 looks like, with the top trend line showing a clear path to north of 2,340.
So now, we wait.