ECONOMIST: 'We are watching stock markets, sovereign spreads in Europe, and euro/dollar exchange rate in that order.'
Over at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi, Chris Rupkey writes that right now, the Greek situation presents "no easy way out."
But as we get closer to the opening of markets, Rupkey says he will be watching stocks, European bonds, and the euro. In that order.
Here's Rupkey:
We are watching stock markets, sovereign spreads in Europe, and euro/dollar exchange rate in that order. We assume at the worst point Dow industrials fall 2-3 percent, the Euro falls to $1.09, and Spain and Italy bond yields rise back closer to the highs a couple of weeks ago at 2.5% or so for each. We don't see contagion risks, continued losses that grow over the next week, from the news that has come out so far. We think they have to actually pack their bags and leave the Eurozone to cause more damage to the markets, at least in terms of getting the market's worst fears realized. We do think Europe is better set for this crisis than it was back in 2012. Draghi said he would do what it takes, now it is up to the Eurogroup and the heads of state to see if they will do what it takes. Stay tuned. Story is still evolving.
As markets opening in Asia, the euro was getting slammed, so we'll see if there is more to come on that front as things really get going here.
But it's starting to look like we should be ready for at least one really ugly day out there.