In A Few Hours We Will See If China's Economy Has Slowed
The number everyone's keeping an eye on is Q1 GDP. Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for Q1 GDP to rise 7.3% year-over-year, down from 7.7% the previous quarter.
In terms of quarter-over-quarter growth, Q1 GDP is expected to rise 1.5%, compared with 1.8% in Q4 2013.
China's economic data so far this year have prompted economists to lower their growth forecasts. "In our view, the weaker 1Q growth could be due mainly to government's much more serious anti-pollution measures, an escalation in anti-corruption and anti-vice campaign, cyclical slowdown of the property sector, lagged impact of rising CNY and rates in 2H13 and government's efforts in controlling local government debt and some shadow banking practice," Bank of America's Ting Lu said in a March 31 note to clients.
But this isn't the only data slated for release tonight.
Retail sales are expected to rise 12.1% YoY, while year-to-date retail sales are expected to rise 11.9%.
Industrial production is expected to rise 9% YoY, and Ytd industrial production is expected to rise 8.8%. Producer prices fell for the 25th straight month and that doesn't bode well for industrial production data.
Finally, Ytd fixed asset investment is expected to rise 18%, modestly higher than 17.9% the previous month.
We'll be watching the latest data to see if it confirms an economic slowdown.