Apple stock is poised for a rebound and the iPhone 15 launch could catapult it past Samsung as the world's biggest smartphone brand, analyst says

• The August sell-off in Apple's stock is poised to reverse, according to top Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
• Kuo said that the upcoming launch of the iPhone 15 could help catapult Apple to become the world's top smartphone brand.
• Kuo estimates that Apple will surpass Samsung and sell 250 million iPhones in 2024.

The more than 10% sell-off seen in Apple's stock price this month is poised to reverse ahead of the upcoming iPhone 15 launch in September.

That's according to Ming-Chi Kuo, a top Apple analyst at TF International Securities, who said on Monday that the likely success of the iPhone 15 will help catapult Apple to become the world's top smartphone brand.

Kuo said Apple has a chance to take over Samsung as the top smartphone maker in both 2023 and 2024. Samsung, according to Kuo, has cut its smartphone shipment target to 220 million units this year.

"If Apple keeps the 2H24 iPhone orders unchanged, then the iPhone shipments are expected to reach 220 to 225 million units in 2023, surpassing Samsung as the largest smartphone brand. This shipment ranking has a long-term positive impact on Apple's ecosystem," Kuo said.

And it's Apple's ecosystem that is one of the most exciting opportunities to investors, as Apple focuses its efforts on selling iPhone users a plethora of services in order to squeeze an extra few dollars in recurring monthly revenue from each user. Apple TV+, Apple Music, and Apple Arcade are just a few product offerings of Apple's fast-growing Services unit.

For 2024, Kuo said Apple's latest iPhone shipment target for 2024 is 250 million units. That's compared to Samsung's internal view that demand for its smartphones in 2024 will be conservative. "Apple will likely remain the largest smartphone brand in 2024," Kuo said.

But analysts are worried that Apple's iPhone 15 sales will be dragged down by supply chain issues, with potential launch delays hitting the high-price iPhone 15 Pro Max.

"However, the fact is that the iPhone 15 Pro Max will start mass shipments this week, and Apple is also increasing shipments of legacy models simultaneously," Kuo said, adding that the market is "overly conservative" on Apple's ability to sell a lot of iPhones next year.

That sets Apple's stock price up for a "rebound opportunity in the near term" as hype starts to build for Apple's upcoming iPhone 15 launch, according to Kuo.