Biden's rescue plan could boost 2021 GDP growth to 11.4%, JPMorgan's global chief strategist says
- President-elect Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion rescue plan could boost nominal GDP growth to 11.4% year-over-year by the end of 2021, JPMorgan's David Kelly said.
- The chief global strategist said on Tuesday that the plan could also cut the unemployment rate to below 5% by the end of this year.
- JPMorgan had estimated before Biden's plan that nominal GDP was on track to rise by 6.4% year-over-year by the end of 2021.
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President-elect Joe Biden's rescue plan could have "significant impacts" on the economy in 2021 and dramatically boost GDP growth, according to JPMorgan's chief global strategist, David Kelly.
The rescue plan Biden laid out last Thursday would cost roughly $1.9 trillion and include a round of $1,400 direct payments, $400 weekly federal unemployment benefits, and funding to support school reopenings and vaccinations, among other efforts. Biden said he wanted to push the plan through Congress as quickly as possible.
Using a simulation of the plan where $1.2 trillion is spent in 2021, Kelly estimated that it could boost nominal GDP growth to 11.4% year-over-year by the end of 2021. Most of that would come in the form of stronger real GDP growth. Kelly also said that the plan could cut the unemployment rate to below 5% by the end of 2021.
JPMorgan had estimated before Biden's plan that nominal GDP was on track to rise by 6.4% year-over-year by the end of 2021.
Kelly predicted some other economic effects of the plan:
- "Extended, expanded and enhanced unemployment benefits through September should significantly reduce poverty until the pandemic winds down. Importantly, however, a $400 weekly supplement, as opposed to the $600 supplement in the CARES Act, would give most laid-off workers a financial incentive to return to work when possible."
- New stimulus checks of $1,400 per person would support consumption over the next few months and could lead to a spending boom in the fourth quarter of 2021 when families spend on services that are shut down right now.
- Additional spending on vaccinations could hasten the end of the pandemic and stimulate the economy.
As for the investment implications of Biden's rescue plan, Kelly said faster economic growth could boost cyclical stocks and particularly financial stocks relative to defensive stocks. But it might lead to slumping asset performance down the road.
"With current valuations at very high levels, 2021 already looked like a difficult year for financial assets," Kelly said. "On balance, the Biden rescue plan, if implemented, could add to those challenges."
Biden also called for more spending through a "recovery plan" he said he'd outline in his address to a joint session of Congress in February.