Here come retail sales ...

The latest report on US retail sales is set for release at 8:30 a.m .ET.

Economists estimate, according to Bloomberg, that retail sales fell 0.2% month-on-month in February.

Excluding volatile auto and gas costs, core retail sales are expected at +0.2%. The control group, which feeds into GDP and also excludes some volatile components, is estimated to have gained by the same.

Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson outlined in a client note today why the data cannot tell us everything we need to know about consumer spending, although they'll give us a clue.

The initial release includes nominal numbers, and so they are still subject to revision on a "real" basis because of changes in the dollar.

More importantly, retail sales make up only 45% of consumption. The rest comes out in the full personal income and spending report at the end of the month.

Shepherdson wrote, "We realize that asking markets to wait a couple weeks for the full spending data is like asking a five-year-old just to look at a bar of chocolate and not touch it, but it is the best way to avoid being blindsided. Unless the sales numbers are very strong or very weak, it is risky to assume that their overall tone will be reflected in real consumption."

We'll have the latest at the bottom of the hour, so refresh this page for updates.