"The refugee crisis may raise the risk of Brexit, either by reducing the likelihood that the UK government secures the reforms it seeks ahead of the referendum, or by undermining public support for remaining in the EU, or both," argues Fordham.
Still, there's plenty of time to go before the referendum — and other factors can swing this in different directions.
And, in any case, although some in the UK might think that leaving the EU would help them "regain control of [their] borders" — that's not going to make the UK a less attractive destination for migrants or refugees.