CIA predicted the Iran crisis that spiraled out of Trump pulling the US from the 2015 nuclear deal
- About a year before President Donald Trump pulled the US from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the CIA circulated a classified report that largely predicted the crisis that would ensue from such a decision.
- According to the New York Times, the report warned: "Radical elements of the government could be empowered and moderates sidelined, and Iran might try to exploit a diplomatic rupture to unleash an attack in the Persian Gulf, Iraq or elsewhere in the Middle East."
- Since Trump pulled from the deal, tensions between the US and Iran have spiraled toward conflict as Tehran has placed increasing pressure on Europe to save the deal by offering it relief from US sanctions.
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Roughly a year before President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the CIA predicted "radical elements" in the Iranian government would be emboldened by the Trump administration taking a hardline stance against Tehran, according to a New York Times report.
At the time, the CIA circulated a classified document that offered a "simple" and prescient conclusion: "Radical elements of the government could be empowered and moderates sidelined, and Iran might try to exploit a diplomatic rupture to unleash an attack in the Persian Gulf, Iraq or elsewhere in the Middle East."
The CIA's predictions outlined in the Times' report have largely come true.
Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal created a crisis that's sparked fears of war.
Trump withdrew the US from Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in May 2018. His decision went against the advice of foreign policy and nuclear experts, and was condemned by key US allies.
In the time since, tensions between Washington and Tehran have steadily increased, reaching a boiling point this summer and sparking fears of a new war in the Middle East - particularly after the US deployed military assets to the region in May.
Read more: Here's what's in the landmark nuclear deal that Iran just violated amid tensions with Trump
The Trump administration has pursued a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran since pulling from the deal, slapping it with harsh economic sanctions with the goal of pushing it toward negotiating and accepting a more stringent version of the 2015 deal. Foreign policy experts and former national officials have expressed skepticism at the notion Trump can negotiate a "better" deal than the Obama-era nuclear pact, to which key US allies remain committed.
Iran remained in compliance with the 2015 deal until July, when it began violating key portions of the agreement by increasing its uranium stockpile and exceeding limitations on uranium enrichment. This came not long after oil tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf, which the Trump administration blamed on Iran.
Iran also shot down a US drone in June, which almost led Trump to approve retaliatory military strikes, and in July seized a British-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman in retaliation for the UK's seizure of an Iranian tanker in Gibraltar.
Current and former US officials have pointed to Trump pulling from the 2015 deal as the catalyst for Iran's aggressive behavior.
Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut in May told Insider that while he does not defend Iran's actions, "we knew this was the likely outcome of ... backing out of the JCPOA. We're backing them into a corner and you just don't know what happens when a country as belligerent as Iran starts to panic."
Similarly, former State Department adviser Aaron David Miller in June told Insider that we're witnessing an "unraveling" that began when Trump withdrew from the JCPOA.
Trump's hawkish advisers have driven the crisis with Iran.
Trump's Iran policy has been driven by advisers with reputations as foreign policy hawks - National Security Adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
In the past, Bolton has openly advocated for military strikes against Iran and though the Trump administration has maintained its current policy is not designed to lead to regime change in Tehran, some in Washington aren't entirely convinced.
The Trump administration in late July sanctioned Iran's top diplomat Javad Zarif. Matt Duss, foreign policy adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, told Insider this move shows there is "clearly a faction inside" the Trump administration whose goal with Iran is "clearly regime change," and pointed to Bolton and Pompeo.
Duss said these advisers, who are supported by anti-Iran groups in Washington, have "this fantasy" that if they maintain "maximum pressure" on Tehran then "something will happen and we'll end up with an Iranian government that's better."
"The problem is that's never happened," Duss added, describing their approach to US-Iran relations as "unfalsifiable" and "completely ideological."
The 2015 nuclear deal is crumbling.
In late August, Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani signaled they'd be open to holding talks under the right conditions. Rouhani, perhaps under pressure from hardliners in his government, quickly clarified that he would only sit down with Trump if the US lifted sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy.
Rouhani on Tuesday ruled out bilateral discussions with the US, but said Iran would be open to multilateral discussions if the US agrees to lift all sanctions.
On Wednesday, the Iranian president said Iran would soon take an "extraordinary" step away from the 2015 nuclear accord, giving European countries who have rushed to save the deal a two-month deadline to alleviate the negative impact of renewed US sanctions, The Guardian reported. Rouhani said the next step would be announced this week but would not take effect until later in the year.
In his comments on Wednesday, Rouhani blamed Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 deal - and hardliners within his administration - for the present situation.
"Hardliners, neocons and racists in the US do not want the relationship between Iran and the US to be right - whenever we move forward, they spoil it," he said. "The US exit from the nuclear deal was the result of this triangle of radicalism inside the White House."