Here come retail sales ...

At 8:30 a.m. ET, we'll get the latest data on US retail sales.

Economists are expecting it to be ugly. After a rebound to 1.2% in May, the consensus is for a 0.2% rise in sales, and 0.5% excluding autos, according to Bloomberg.

As we highlighted Monday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that sales actually fell, based on their credit and debit card data.

"The softness in [our] spending data suggest caution heading into the June Census Bureau advance retail sales report given that the two measures trend together," BAML economics wrote.

In a note to clients Tuesday, Deutsche Bank's Joseph LaVorgna forecast that headline retail sales may fall because of the slowdown in June auto sales.

Still, consumer spending is fundamentally strong.

"While down from a 17.8M pace in May, vehicle sales have averaged 17.5M units over the last two months," LaVorgna wrote. "This is the strongest two-month pace since July-August 2005 (18.8M). The strength in vehicle sales tells us that consumers are confident in their job and income prospects and that there are jobs to drive to-otherwise, people would not purchases these big-ticket items."

The retail sales data will give us a better sense of the strength of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of US GDP.

We'll be back with all the details as soon as they cross.