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HSBC: These are the 12 questions clients are asking us about commodities

Mar 21, 2016, 14:28 IST

File picture of employees working at a steel factory in DalianThomson Reuters

Commodities have had a rough ride for past 12 months, hit by falling demand from China as its economy slows.

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The plunge in prices has hit miners and traders, such as Glencore, as well as entire economies, like Venezuela, who depend on a buoyant market.

But the last few weeks has seen prices spring back again, and oil popped up above $40 a barrel.

The volatility has traders and investment banking clients asking a lot of a questions.

HSBC analysts compiled the 12 most-asked questions about commodities from their clients. Added together, it makes a brilliant cheat sheet giving you everything you need to know about the state of the world economy, oil and commodity prices.

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Answer: Falling investment in the oil industry, especially in the US, will have a long-lasting effect on supply and therefore prices (which should start to increase.)

7. The US is going to start exporting LNG. What is that doing to the market balances and to the outlook for pricing?

Answer: It will boost supply of liquefied natural gas by 50% and oversupply the market.

8. How will lower LNG prices affect the Australian LNG story?

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Answer: Australia is about to overtake Qatar as the world's biggest LNG producer, so the money should still roll in.

9. Dairy prices are at low levels. Will a supply retreat lift prices?

Answer: Not so much - global demand is still falling.

10. How have recent movements in the BRL affected the outlook for sugar?

Answer: The depreciation of the Brazilian real is good for producers, as it makes their product relatively cheaper, so they'll make more of it.

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11. Palm oil has been oversupplied. How long before this is worked off?

Answer: Pretty soon, and prices should increase by 10%.

12. Will recent climate agreements lift or lower commodity prices?

Answer: Possibly but it depends on how quickly the reforms are implemented.

The HSBC analysts answering the questions were: Paul Bloxham, Gordon Gray, Thomas Hilboldt, Alexandre Falcao, Jigar Mistry, Wai-Shin Chan, Shishir Singh, Chris Leung and Daniel Smith.

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