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Bill Ackman's latest short is a 'smart lottery ticket' bet against the Hong Kong dollar – here are 7 of his biggest trades

  • Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is shorting the Hong Kong dollar for his latest trade.
  • It's a 'smart lottery ticket' bet that the currency's dollar peg will break as interest rates rise, veteran trader Boaz Weinstein said.

Bill Ackman is betting against the Hong Kong dollar's peg against the greenback for his latest trade.

"We have a large notional short position against the Hong Kong dollar through the ownership of put options," the billionaire investor tweeted last week. "The peg no longer makes sense for Hong Kong and it is only a matter of time before it breaks."

Hong Kong's currency has had its value fixed at between 7.75 and 7.85 per US dollar for nearly four decades, but the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest-rate increases this year have put pressure on that peg. Put options are derivative contracts that grant the holder the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price on a fixed date.

Hong Kong's finance ministry maintains the peg to the dollar by matching the Federal Reserve's rate decisions. But Ackman says there's a growing case for it to abandon that strategy, as China grapples with a zero-COVID-fueled economic slowdown and a debt crisis in its property sector.

Veteran trader Boaz Weinstein praised Ackman's latest short as a 200-to-1 'smart lottery ticket' – but others have said that it's unlikely his big bet against the Hong Kong dollar will pay off.

"I can see Ackman's point – Hong Kong's economy is suffering from slow growth at a time when the dollar is surging because of tightening monetary policy," SEB's chief emerging markets strategist Per Hammarlund told Insider. "But I really don't think the peg is going to break at this point."

In his 30-year career at the helm of Gotham Partners and then Pershing Square Capital Management, Ackman has racked up some outsized wins – as well as some troubling losses.

Here are seven of the billionaire investor's biggest trades.

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