One Sign That Undefeated Florida State Is In Serious Danger Of Being Left Out Of The College Football Playoff
The one big shakeup in the ranking came with TCU jumping up to take the spot in the top four vacated by Mississippi State who lost to Ole Miss. But more importantly, TCU leapfrogged past Florida State who fell to no. 4 after struggling to get by Florida.
Here are the new rankings for the seven teams that still have a realistic shot to make the playoff:
- Alabama
- Oregon
- TCU
- Florida State
- Ohio State
- Baylor
- Arizona
The good news for Florida State is that they are still in the top four. The bad news is that, in theory, they would not be if Mississippi State had beaten Ole Miss.
If Mississippi State had defeated 19th-ranked Ole Miss on the road the committee almost certainly would have kept them ahead of TCU and the committee just made it clear that they think TCU has a better resume than Florida State.
So, if Mississippi State doesn't lose, they are no. 3 and TCU is no. 4, which would have meant Florida State would have dropped to no. 5 and out of the playoff picture.
In other words, it appears that Florida State is not getting any bonus points for being the defending champs and the committee is clearly not impressed by their unblemished record and several indices agree.
Florida State is ranked all the way down at no. 11 in ESPN's Football Power Index and no. 6 in Sports-Reference.com's Simple Rating System. Both of those rankings weigh a team's margin of victories against their strength of schedule.
The real test will come this weekend. If Ohio State wins the Big Ten championship with a convincing win over no. 13 Wisconsin and Florida State wins another nail-biter against no. 11 Georgia Tech, the defending champs could get left out of the playoff despite being undefeated.
Now that is something even the BCS system wouldn't have dared to do.