Opening Bell: Bear market rally incoming

Opening Bell: Bear market rally incoming
Jose Luis Pelaez Inc/Getty

Glad to see you on a Monday morning. Phil Rosen here — the stock market still can't catch a break. Investors should be alert for a bear market rally on the horizon before another plunge in the face of Fed hawkishness.


Let's see what top analysts have to say. Coffee at the ready…

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1. Stocks might be poised to rally, but brace for another fall. Bank of America analysts said Friday that the S&P 500 could surge 7%, but will reverse course again in a classic bear market head fake.

According to the note, a contrarian indicator is flashing the "buy" signal, and investors should take advantage of it ahead of a rally.

But once the S&P 500 hits 4,400, investors should get out or look for ways to short the market.

That's because Fed tightening is going to keep driving stocks lower, even if a rally materializes in the near term, the bank's analysts said. On top of rate hikes, the central bank still has billions to shed from its $9 trillion balance sheet.

"No fun 'til [the] Fed [is] done... and in 2022 that requires [a] negative payroll print," BofA explained.


But their bearish outlook could change if high-yield credit recovers its recent weakness and shows signs of strength. That would signal that the credit markets are unlikely to seize up, as they have in past recessions.

In other news:

Opening Bell: Bear market rally incoming
President Joe Biden speaks to the media before boarding Air Force One at Des Moines International Airport, in Des Moines Iowa, Tuesday, April 12, 2022, en route to Washington.AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

2. US stock futures rise Monday, as Beijing's easing of COVID restrictions brightens hopes for the economy. Oil prices also edged higher, after Saudi Aramco hiked crude oil prices for customers in Asia. Here are the latest market moves.

3. On the docket: Argan Inc, CIBL, and Acura Pharmaceuticals, reporting.


4. UBS analysts are most bullish on this batch of stocks. Recession fears and wild market swings have created unique investing opportunities, but these buy-rated stocks could reward investors — see their 43 "highest conviction" picks here.

5. Hackers steal $357,000 worth of NFTs from Bored Ape Yacht Club's Discord server. The hacker made off with 200 ETH after the servers were "briefly exploited," the BAYC team wrote on Twitter. Here's what we know about how they did it.

6. New York passed a bill placing a moratorium on cryptocurrency mining. State lawmakers are seeking to address environmental concerns with legislation. The bill targets proof-of-work crypto mining operations that burn fossil fuels.

7. Elliott has sued the London Metal Exchange for $456 million over the nickel debacle. The hedge fund stated that the LME unlawfully canceled nickel trades after the price surged 250% to above $100,000 a ton. However, the LME insists "the claim is without merit."

8. A new type of ETF is having a moment this year as stocks and bonds sell off. One of the largest providers of buffered ETFs told Insider how they work — and how they are designed to minimize or wipe out investors' downside.


9. The VP of investment strategy at $46 billion Glenmede shared his two criteria for calling a market bottom. Mike Reynolds said that a rebound isn't happening in the market until specific parameters are met. Plus, he broke down his three favorite investment ideas right now.

Opening Bell: Bear market rally incoming
Andy Kiersz/Insider

10. The economy is still on track to finish its jobs recovery this summer. If the pace of job creation holds, the country could be on track for a July recovery goal. That pace is three times as fast as the rebound from the 2008 financial crisis.

Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.

Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email or tweet @philrosenn.) Edited by Hallam Bullock (tweet @hallam_bullock) in London.