These 7 economic signals flashed red this week, showing the continued damage being inflicted by coronavirus

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These 7 economic signals flashed red this week, showing the continued damage being inflicted by coronavirus
  • While many states across the US have begun to slowly reopen, economic data continues to show devastation from the coronavirus pandemic.
  • Economists agree that the US is already in a recession. Now, they're weighing what shape a potential recovery might take.
  • Many reports this week hit fresh records. But some showed glimmers of hope that a recovery may be coming as some states begin to reopen.
  • Here are seven economic signals that flashed warnings this week.
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

In just two short months, the US economy has been devastated by the coronavirus pandemic and sweeping shut downs to contain the spread of the disease.

Last week's April jobs report showed that the US economy lost a record 20.5 million jobs and the unemployment rate spiked to 14.7%, the highest since the depths of the Great Depression. Since the eye-watering report, more have been released showing further damage to the US economy.

Economists and industry watchers agree that the US has been thrown into a recession from the coronavirus pandemic shutdowns. Now, all eyes are watching US economic data to gauge the extent of the damage and weigh what shape a recovery might take.

Initially, some argued that a swift, V-shaped recovery was possible. But as coronavirus-induced layoffs persist, and many consumers are still stuck at home, it now appears that any rebound will be more muted.

There have also been a few glimmers of hope as many states across the country slowly reopen. For example, even though April's jobs report showed devastating losses, 18.1 million workers were classified as temporarily unemployed, suggesting that they may be able to quickly re-enter the workforce when lockdowns are lifted.

Read more: 'We have a depression on our hands': The CIO of a bearish $150 million fund says the market will grind to new lows after the current bounce is over — and warns 'a lot more pain' is still to come

In addition, some reports this week — while dismal — may represent a low point before a rebound. For example, April retail sales posted a second record slump, but may not record a third.

"This report was always going to be terrible," said Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics in a Friday note. "But it likely marks the floor, given the gradual reopening now underway or soon to be underway."

Listed below are the seven indicators that were released this week, and what they tell us about the US economy:

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7. JOLTS, well, jolted

7. JOLTS, well, jolted
Labor Department

The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, released by the Labor Department Friday showed that available positions fell to 6.2 million in March from 7 million in February.

The median economist estimate was for a fall to 5.8 million, according to Bloomberg data. While opening positions fell slightly less than expected, separations — which includes layoffs and quits— jumped to 14.5 million, a series high.

The month also ended a two-year streak where job openings outnumbered unemployed workers — at the end of March, there were 1.2 people for every open job, according to the report.

The report shows that effective employment is "primarily a story of layoffs really driving employment down, rather than a slower, steadier decline in hiring growth," Nick Bunker, an economist at Indeed, told Business Insider.

6. US industrial production fell by the most in 101 years of data

6. US industrial production fell by the most in 101 years of data
The global outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Alhambra Reuters

In April, total US industrial production fell 11.2%, and manufacturing output declined a record 13.7%, according to a Friday report from the Federal Reserve. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a 14.6% drop.

All major industries posted decreases, according to the Fed. Automobile and auto parts manufacturing plummeted more than 70%, the biggest industry-group decline in the Fed's index.

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5. Consumer sentiment rose ... but expectations for the future dropped

5. Consumer sentiment rose ... but expectations for the future dropped
University of Michigan

The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index gained to 73.7 in May from 71.8 in April according to preliminary data released Friday. In April, the index fell the most on record as the coronavirus pandemic froze the economy.

But in May, the index was led higher by a nearly 10-point jump in current economic conditions to 83 from 74.3 in April. This likely reflects economic relief from the CARES Act, according to the survey.

Still, consumers aren't anticipating a quick rebound. The index of consumer expectations fell to 67.7 from 70.1 in April, and personal financial prospects for the year ahead fell to the lowest level in almost six years, according to the report.

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4. Retail sales plunged by a record for the second month in a row

4. Retail sales plunged by a record for the second month in a row
Getty

Retail sales plunged 16.4% in April, according to a Friday report from the Commerce Department. The decline was worse than the 12% drop economists were expecting.

April's dismal number also came after a record slump in March, when retail sales fell 8.3%. At the time, it was the worst drop in the series, which began in 1992.

Sagging retail sales don't bode well for US gross domestic product. Retail sales account for more than 40% of consumer spending, which in turn is around 70% of US GDP.

"The 23% cumulative fall in retail sales over the last two months this alone is enough to knock more than 6 percentage points off the level of nominal GDP," said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, in a Friday note.

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3. Jobless claims fell again, but brought the eight-week total to 36.5 million

3. Jobless claims fell again, but brought the eight-week total to 36.5 million
Andy Kierz / Business Insider

US jobless claims posted another weekly decline according to Thursday's report. In the week ending May 9, 2.98 million Americans filed for unemployment, slightly less than the 3.17 million initial claims a week earlier.

While the downward trend is promising, claims are still highly elevated, a concerning sign as some states begin to reopen for business. In addition, in just eight weeks — since major coronavirus layoffs began — more than 36.5 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance.

That boils down to roughly one in 10 Americans, according to Daniel Zhao, an economist at Glassdoor.

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2. US consumer prices posted a record drop in April

2. US consumer prices posted a record drop in April
A shopper and cashier both wear masks, gloves and the cashier also has on a plastic visor at the checkout station Pat's Farms grocery store on March 31, 2020 in Merrick, New York. Al Bello/Getty Images

The core consumer-price index fell 0.4% in April, following a 0.1% decline in March, according to a Tuesday report from the Labor Department.

It's the largest monthly drop for the measure — which excludes food and fuel costs — since 1957, when the series began. The index rose 1.4% from last April, the smallest year-over-year increase since 2011.

US CPI including food and fuel slumped 0.8% in April, the largest monthly drop since December 2008.

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1. Small businesses are banking on a rebound, but expect sales to plummet

1. Small businesses are banking on a rebound, but expect sales to plummet
Robert Alexander/Getty Images

The National Federation of Independent Business' survey released Tuesday showed that small business optimism slumped to 90.9 in April. The median economist estimate was for a drop to 83.

The smaller-than-expected slump was boosted by business owners' expectations of the US economy, which jumped 24 points in April, erasing all losses from March. This likely reflects optimism around economic reopenings, now underway in many states.

On the flip side, the survey's index of sales expectations posted the sharpest drop from March, slumping 30 points to negative 42, the lowest reading in 46 years.

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