THE FINAL BUSINESS INSIDER ELECTORAL PROJECTION: The race still hangs in the balance
In Business Insider's final electoral projection, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has dipped below the needed 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency. To secure the presidency on Tuesday, she would need to win one of seven states where polls show a toss-up or her slightly trailing Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Trump, on the other hand, would need to win all seven to secure the presidency.
Using polling data from RealClearPolitics and The Washington Post/SurveyMonkey, Business Insider found that Clinton, as of this week, would lead Trump 234-to-180 electoral votes in states that were either safe or likely bets to go in favor of either major party's nominee. It's a dip from Clinton's 263-to-180 advantage last week.
Business Insider judged that a safe state was one in which a candidate led by at least 8 percentage points, while a likely state was any one in which the nominee held a lead of between 4 and 8 points.
When including states leaning toward a candidate by between 2 and 4 points, Clinton held a 268-to-215 advantage over Trump. Last week, Clinton was up 272-to-209 when including this category.
Toss-up states included Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Maine's 2nd Congressional district also fit into the category. Those areas accounted for 55 electoral votes.
Toss-up states were those in which a major-party nominee held a lead of less than 2 points.
The map made the following shifts from last week:
- Pennsylvania moved from "likely" Clinton to "lean" Clinton
- New Hampshire moved from "likely" Clinton to "toss-up"
- New Mexico moved from "likely" Clinton to "lean" Clinton
- Iowa moved from "toss-up" to "lean" Trump
- Texas moved from "likely" Trump to "safe" Trump
- Utah moved from "likely" Trump to "safe" Trump