The Firm Wall Street Revolted Against Totally Nailed The Jobs Report
REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin
ADP stood by their methodology.
And this morning, ADP appeared to have been vindicated, having predicted 191,000 private payrolls on Wednesday. The actual figure was 192,000.
That difference is almost completely statistically insignificant.
"We stand by our numbers and methodology over time," ADP spokesman Dick Wolfe emailed, after the numbers hit.
Pantheon Ian Shepherdson and ThomsonReuters' Jeoff Hall were among the most prominent critics of ADP's forecast.
And their reaction to today's results was basically: Whatever.
Jeoff Hall
"While we tipped our cap to ADP this morning, we note that had they (or we) relied on the trimmed 12-month mean through February, they (or we) would have had nearly the same precision (see table)," said Hall.
Shepherdson, meanwhile, Tweeted this:
@morningmoneyben That would be a no. Even the Astros won 51 games last season, doesn't make them a reliable bet.
- Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson) April 4, 2014
So let's see what happens next month.
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