The Most Accurate US Economic Forecaster Has Never Been To America
Now the results are in, and it turns out that five of the top 8 forecasters are outside the United States. For the most part, they attributed their success to an outsider advantage coupled with a global perspective.
The most accurate of all the bankers was Christophe Barraud, of Market Securities-Kyte Group in Paris. He's never been to the United States.
“I think that being in France helps me be more objective,” said Barraud, 26, who earned a doctorate in economics from the University of Paris-Dauphine. He said he’s more prone to getting the French economy wrong, and has “underestimated French economic fundamentals,” reflecting his countrymen’s pessimism about their own economy. “On the U.S., I have no bias.”
Other overseas forecasters whose U.S. outlooks have been among the most accurate include Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz, with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt; Gregorio De Felice, with Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) in Milan; Rudolf Besch and Marina Luetje with DekaBank in Frankfurt; and Thomas Lam, with OSK-DMG in Singapore.
Overall, non-U.S. economists represented 24 of the 69 who submitted forecasts to Bloomberg.
It's a small world after all.