The 20 cities most likely to fall apart, according to a global security expert
Feisal Omar/Reuters
According to Robert Muggah, global security expert and research director at the think tank Igarapé Institute, there are a total of 66 cities dealing with such rapid urbanization, high unemployment, and risk of natural disaster and violence that they're highly vulnerable to physical or economic collapse.
Muggah calls this a city's "fragility."
"All cities are fragile to some degree," he tells Business Insider. But what separates a city like New York from one like Mogadishu, Somalia is generally the extent to which a city's government delivers basic services to its citizens. Fragile cities don't promote equality, safety, affordable access to health care, or adequate resources during environmental disaster.
Earlier this year, the Igarapé Institute teamed up with the United Nations University, the World Economic Forum, the World Bank, and SecDev to analyze data related to those factors. They ended up with a picture of global fragility (and stability), which has since been assembled into an interactive map. Cities are ranked on a scale from 0-4, with 4 as the most fragile.
Out of the 66 cities whose scores fall between 3-4, the 20 most fragile include:
Mogadishu, Somalia - 4
Kismaayo, Somalia - 3.
Merca, Somalia - 3.9
Kabul, Afghanistan - 3.7
Al-Mawsil (Mosul), Iraq - 3.7
Aden, Yemen - 3.6
Kirkuk, Iraq - 3.5
Juba, Republic of South Sudan - 3.5
Ibb, Yemen - 3.5
Kunduz, Afghanistan - 3.4
Bunia, Democratic Republic of the Congo - 3.4
Al-Basrah (Basra), Iraq - 3.4
Baaqoobah, Iraq - 3.4
Hargeysa, Somalia - 3.4
Al-Raqqah, Syrian Arab Republic - 3.4
Sana'A, Yemen - 3.4
Al-Mukalla, Yemen - 3.4
Ta'Izz, Yemen - 3.4
Herat, Afghanistan - 3.3
Kandahar, Afghanistan - 3.3
As the list indicates, many of the most fragile cities are located in Africa, the Middle East, Central America, and Southeast Asia. Unemployment in these regions can range from modestly high (6.8% in Bamako, Mali) to severe (66% in Mogadishu, Somalia).
Other factors that the most fragile cities share are exposure to environmental risks like floods and droughts, high rates of urbanization - often more than 4% population growth per year, Muggah says - and extremely high rates of terrorism and murder.
In a February report for the World Economic Forum, Muggah explains how fragility can fluctuate over time. Some cities may stay relatively stable or fragile, but most will naturally respond to social, economic, and environmental pressures, either falling or rising in the rankings.
One factor seems to hold constant, however: small- to medium-sized cities are the most vulnerable in Muggah's model. Only three megacities (populations over 10 million) and three very large cities (5-10 million) are highly fragile. But there are dozens more between 250,000 people and 5 million that qualify (partly because there are more cities in that range overall).
Cities can reduce their fragility score by strengthening the systems that help people stay safe and healthy. In war-torn areas or those at risk for hurricanes and earthquakes, that means ramping up security measures and offering access to shelter and first-aid.
- A centenarian who starts her day with gentle exercise and loves walks shares 5 longevity tips, including staying single
- A couple accidentally shipped their cat in an Amazon return package. It arrived safely 6 days later, hundreds of miles away.
- FSSAI in process of collecting pan-India samples of Nestle's Cerelac baby cereals: CEO
- India's e-commerce market set to skyrocket as the country's digital economy surges to USD 1 Trillion by 2030
- Top 5 places to visit near Rishikesh
- Indian economy remains in bright spot: Ministry of Finance
- A surprise visit: Tesla CEO Elon Musk heads to China after deferring India visit
- Unemployment among Indian youth is high, but it is transient: RBI MPC member
- JNK India IPO allotment date
- JioCinema New Plans
- Realme Narzo 70 Launched
- Apple Let Loose event
- Elon Musk Apology
- RIL cash flows
- Charlie Munger
- Feedbank IPO allotment
- Tata IPO allotment
- Most generous retirement plans
- Broadcom lays off
- Cibil Score vs Cibil Report
- Birla and Bajaj in top Richest
- Nestle Sept 2023 report
- India Equity Market