The Israeli election exit polls are in, and it's too close to call

Exit polls have been released in Israel's national elections. They show a very close race between Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party and Isaac Herzog's Zionist Union, with a coalition of Arab parties placing third.

Israel's Channel 1 and Channel 10 both project Likud and the Zionist Union winning 27 seats each. Channel 2 projects Likud winning 28, a 1-seat advantage over the Zionist Union:

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Crucially, the far-right Yachad party failed to clear the electoral threshold, potentially delivering a plurality of seats to Netanyahu while weakening a potential right-wing coalition. Meretz, a leftist party, cleared the electoral threshold and is expected to have 4 or 5 seats in the next Knesset and oppose another Netanyahu premiership.

Under Israel's electoral system, the largest party doesn't necessarily get to form the government. Likud may have out-performed some pretty dire expectations, but that doesn't mean they'll get the chance to lead the country for another four years.

The major exit polls don't yet agree, and the coalition math is anyone's guess right now even after the final vote is tallied. Israel's one step closer to having a new government - but it's still unclear who's going to lead it.

Here's a full breakdown of the exit polls by party:

Easy-to-digest #Israelelex poll numbers, according to the three main TV stations. Numbers from @natansachs pic.twitter.com/pmpk25bWpj

- Oren Kessler (@OrenKessler) March 17, 2015

Based on these numbers, right-wing parties own a slight advantage for a future coalition. Counting Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party - the election's crucial swing vote - Likud, the ultra-orthodox parties, and the far-right parties account for roughly 64 seats. Left-center parties have around 58 seats if Kulanu is included and one of the ultra-orthodox parties or Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu party decide to join with Herzog.

That means that Netanyahu's path to power is much clearer than Herzog's, but dependent on one or two swing parties. It also means that Herzog can reach striking distance of a coalition, but only after an impressive but not inconceivable feat of political horse-trading that might involve the secularist Yesh Atid party coming to grips with ultra-orthodox leadership in order to deny Netanyahu another term.

It also means that the easiest route to 60 seats is through a unity government with a rotating premiership: each exit poll has the two largest parties combining for nearly half of the Knesset's total seats.