CURTICE: The Scottish independence question is 'shredding' support for Scottish Labour
Jeff J Mitchell / Getty
Labour's popularity in Scotland continues to drop, according to a new poll.
The YouGov survey, carried out in November, put support for Labour at 15% in terms of constituency voting intention. That is a one-point decrease since August, and eight points less than the 23% vote share that Labour picked up in May's Scottish elections.
That election saw the party come third in what has traditionally been a two-horse race between Labour and the SNP. The SNP lost 6 seats and its majority, but it continued to dominate Scottish parliament with 63 MSPs. The Conservatives, campaigning on a Unionist platform, gained 16 seats, taking them to a record-breaking 31 in total, while Labour's MSP count dropped by 13 to 24 - and the party's popularity has only decreased since.
So what's happening? The question of Scottish independence is back on the table since the UK voted to leave the EU. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon argues that a "material change in circumstances" gives her the mandate to call a second independence referendum, especially considering that a majority of Scots voted to remain in the EU.
Although Scotland as a whole has become less likely to vote for independence since the 2014 referendum, Labour's problem is that it is on the losing side of both the Brexit and Independence issues north of the border.
The figures are dramatic. Forty-five percent of people who voted "No" in the last referendum now say they would vote Conservative - up from 34% in YouGov's survey in May. Meanwhile, unionist support for Labour dropped in the same period from 37% to 25%.
Labour's position on independence is far from clear, and it's hurting the party. In February, Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale hinted that she might support Scottish independence, before backtracking and saying that she would vote to stay in the UK.
In the meantime, the Scottish Conservatives have positioned themselves firmly as the party of unionists and the SNP retain the support of most independence voters. Professor John Curtice, a polling expert and politics professor at the University of Strathclyde, told Business Insider that the resurgence of the Scottish independence question has left Labour "high and dry."
"Putting the constitutional question back on the table seems to be helping the Tories and hurting Labour," Curtice said.
"The problem for Labour is that it divides them, and their electorate. The party is split on the issue, and it isn't comfortable talking about it. Labour is happy to talk about anything but the constitutional question," he said.
YouTube
"Virtually everybody who votes Tory is in favour of staying inside the union, virtually everyone who votes SNP is in favour of independence, the two parties are quite happy to talk about the constitutional question," he added.
"Schools, hospitals, employment, anything - just don't ask them about the constitutional question, because it's not comfortable territory."
- I spent $2,000 for 7 nights in a 179-square-foot room on one of the world's largest cruise ships. Take a look inside my cabin.
- Colon cancer rates are rising in young people. If you have two symptoms you should get a colonoscopy, a GI oncologist says.
- Saudi Arabia wants China to help fund its struggling $500 billion Neom megaproject. Investors may not be too excited.
- Catan adds climate change to the latest edition of the world-famous board game
- Tired of blatant misinformation in the media? This video game can help you and your family fight fake news!
- Tired of blatant misinformation in the media? This video game can help you and your family fight fake news!
- JNK India IPO allotment – How to check allotment, GMP, listing date and more
- Indian Army unveils selfie point at Hombotingla Pass ahead of 25th anniversary of Kargil Vijay Diwas
- JNK India IPO allotment date
- JioCinema New Plans
- Realme Narzo 70 Launched
- Apple Let Loose event
- Elon Musk Apology
- RIL cash flows
- Charlie Munger
- Feedbank IPO allotment
- Tata IPO allotment
- Most generous retirement plans
- Broadcom lays off
- Cibil Score vs Cibil Report
- Birla and Bajaj in top Richest
- Nestle Sept 2023 report
- India Equity Market