Jacksonville Jaguars* (+1.5) over Tennessee Titans
One of the more profitable trends in betting is to go against teams getting 70% of the money or more, especially early in the season. Las Vegas bookmakers are pretty good at what they do, and when the pendulum swings so far to one side, it is usually a smart play to go the other way.
According to The Action Network, 73% of the money is currently on the Titans in this Thursday night matchup. We'll take the home underdog that no one else seems to believe in and hope for the best.
Green Bay Packers* (-7.5) over Denver Broncos
The Packers are off to a 2-0 start, and Aaron Rodgers hasn't even had a stellar performance yet. Their defense looks surprisingly sharp through two games and should be able to handle Joe Flacco and the Broncos offense.
This feels like a statement game for the Packers, with Rodgers throwing for four touchdowns and reminding the NFL that he's still one of the best in the game as Green Bay rolls in front of the home crowd.
Indianapolis Colts* (-1) over Atlanta Falcons
The Colts could be 2-0 right now if not for a few missed kicks from Adam Vinatieri. Meanwhile, the Falcons were one missed touchdown catch away from the Eagles sending them to an 0-2 start to the season.
Instead, Atlanta prevailed dramatically in front of a national audience on Sunday night, and it feels as though they are getting a bit too much respect for barely getting past a banged-up Philadelphia team at home.
The line feels a few points off, so I'm backing the Colts.
Kansas City Chiefs* (-6.5) over Baltimore Ravens
I love how the Ravens have played so far this season, but they have yet to face an opponent that will win more than six games this season.
The Chiefs are the best offense in football and will be ready to flex their muscles at home in this spot.
Please don't bet this game; there are better things to do with your money. Lord forgive me for laying a touchdown with the Buffalo Bills, but the Bengals are not good.
Credit where credit is due — Josh Allen and the Bills have started 2-0 on the road and will be greeted as heroes back in Buffalo. They'll get one more win before the patriots come to town next week and blow them out of the water.
New England Patriots* (-23) over New York Jets
Any NFL spread of 14 or more is usually an automatic bet on the underdog for me. But taking a third-string rookie quarterback making his first start against Tom Brady in New England is not something I am willing to do.
Either stay away or take the Pats.
Detroit Lions (+6.5) over Philadelphia Eagles*
The Eagles are extremely banged up after essentially losing their entire receiving corps to injury for their Sunday night affair against Atlanta.
I love my team, but this is too many points to lay when the Birds are down to their fourth, fifth, and sixth receivers.
Minnesota Vikings* (-9) over Oakland Raiders
Kirk Cousins is good against bad teams and bad against good teams.
The Raiders are not a good team.
Dallas Cowboys* (-21.5) over Miami Dolphins
Last week we made a vow to bet against the Dolphins every week until they covered, at which point we would reconsider our options.
Our experiment paid off when the Patriots ran over the Dolphins in Miami, their second straight shellacking at the hands of a team that's actually trying to win games this year.
Let's see if the Cowboys can make it three straight.
The Daniel Jones era has officially begun in New York.
While it feels risky to take a rookie on the road in his first career start, I'm confident the Giants will rally around Jones and steal their first win of the season.
Also, while their Thursday night win over the Panthers was impressive, the Buccaneers have no business being 6.5-point favorites over any team in the league.
Well, any team besides the Dolphins.
Arizona Cardinals* (-1.5) over Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton is unlikely to play on Sunday, and head coach Ron Rivera is so tired of answering questions about it that he walked out of his press conference on Thursday in frustration.
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals looked relatively solid against the Ravens last week, and have to win at least a few games this season. Count this as one of them.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) over San Francisco 49ers*
Mason Rudolph will start for the Steelers after Ben Roethlisberger's injury last week, and I have faith in the second-year signal-caller.
Mike Tomlin is a good coach that finds ways to keep his team in games, as he did last week against the Seahawks. The 49ers have looked fine so far this season, but wins against the Bengals and Buccaneers are far from impressive.
Los Angeles Chargers* (-3) over Houston Texans
The Texans have been hot and cold this season. First, they mounted an inspired comeback in the season opener against the Saints only to lose to a last-second field goal. Then they laid an egg against the Jaguars in Week 2 but saved the victory thanks to a gutsy stop on Jacksonville's attempt at a game-winning two-point conversion.
The Chargers are a similarly difficult team to read, having scored only 10 points against the Lions last week after showing up to play against a strong Colts side in Week 1.
Thankfully, the numbers are making this pick for us. According to the Action Network, 70% of bettors are taking the Panthers, so we're zagging to back the Chargers.
New Orleans Saints (+4.5) over Seattle Seahawks*
Seattle had to work a little harder than expected to take down the Steelers last week, and in Week 1 needed every trick in the book to hold off the paltry Bengals.
With a full week to prepare, I think Teddy Bridgewater can play well enough to keep things close with the Seahawks.
The Cleveland Browns coming-out party was spoiled by the Tennessee Titans in Week 1. Under the lights on Sunday night, Baker Mayfield and company make good on their promise of a new era of Browns football with a win over the reigning NFC champions.
Washington Redskins* (+4) over Chicago Bears
Washington may be off to an 0-2 start, but they haven't looked nearly as bad as one might have expected. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead against the Eagles in their season opener before faltering and keeping relative pace with the Cowboys in Week 2.
The Chicago Bears needed a miracle field goal to save their skin in Week 2 against the Broncos. After two weeks of putrid offense from Chicago, their status as road favorites against a Washington squad that has hardly played like pushovers feels suspect.