Are We Going To Go To War With Russia Over Ukraine?
REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov Russian servicemen take part in a military parade rehearsal in Red Square in Moscow, November 5, 2013. The parade will be held on November 7 to mark the anniversary of a historical parade in 1941 when Soviet soldiers marched through Red Square towards the front lines at World War Two. With ousted Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovych having fled to Moscow for protection, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warning Russia to stand down, and pro-Russian gunmen taking over Ukraine government buildings, we wondered whether the escalating Ukraine crisis might lead to a US military conflict with Russia.
We asked geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group what is likely to happen.
Fortunately, Bremmer says there is a "near-zero" chance of a direct US military conflict with Russia.
Instead, Bremmer says, a portion of Ukraine might secede and align with Russia, while the rest of the country will remain intact (and aligned with Europe). There might be local violence and verbal skirmishes along the way, but no military action between the U.S. and Russia. If Russia decides to invade Ukraine, Bremmer says, the US will likely condemn the behavior but do nothing.
From Bremmer:
The Kremlin is positioning itself to defend its interests in Crimea, which is the only Ukrainian region with an ethnic Russian majority and home to Russia's Black Sea naval fleet.
About 150,000 troops are performing war games near Russia's border with Ukraine and its fighter jets are on alert. Russian troops are on the streets of Crimea's regional capital of Simferopol as the Russian flag flies about its parliament building.
Crimean politicians are talking separatism and denouncing the interim government in Kiev as illegitimate. Meanwhile, the new leaders in the capital are trying to figure out how to keep the country unified and solvent.
This map, which shows the common native languages in urban and rural councils as of 2001, illustrates Crimea's closeness to Russia. Blue is Ukrainian and red is Russian.
